The governor of Belgorod, one of the Russian regions bordering Ukraine as well as Kursk—the region undergoing evacuation after Ukraine’s surprise takeover of hundreds of square kilometers behind the border since early August—declared a regional emergency on Wednesday, July 14th, due to heavy Ukrainian shelling, urging Moscow to follow suit on the federal level as well.
“The situation in the Belgorod region continues to be extremely difficult and tense,” Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said in a video posted on his Telegram page. “Therefore, we are making a decision, starting today, to declare a regional emergency situation throughout the Belgorod region … with a subsequent appeal to the government to declare a federal emergency situation.”
Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into the Russian region of Kursk, just northwest of Belgorod, on August 6th. Kyiv sent a considerable force over the border, estimated to be around 10,000 troops and 600 tanks. They easily overpowered the local Russian contingents, which were primarily made up of conscripts who put down their weapons at the first sight of the approaching enemy.
According to President Zelensky, Ukrainian armed forces control over 1,000 square kilometers and 74 settlements (including the town of Sudzha) as of August 13th. They have also managed to halt Russian reinforcements with precise artillery strikes throughout the line of contact. At the same time, Ukraine is conducting massive air and drone attacks in several nearby regions, including Belgorod, Voronezh, Nizhny Novgorod, Volgograd, Bryansk, Oryol, and Rostov.
The pressure on President Putin to deal with the situation mounts with every passing day. Pro-Kremlin commentators blame the West for plotting and coordinating the incursion—an “unprecedented escalation,” they say. Putin has vowed that a “worthy response” is coming soon enough, but Russian troops reportedly began digging trenches around parts of the Ukrainian-controlled area, which might signal that they have quietly given up on their quick counter-offensive plans.
But even though analysts say that the Ukrainian forces will not stay in Kursk for more than a few weeks at most, they still managed to become the first country to invade Russia since 1941—an enormous humiliation for President Putin. This could lead to him resorting to drastic measures and more escalation on the battlefield, but also, to reconsider his position and view Kyiv on a much more equal footing once the peace negotiations begin.
Apart from the obvious—forcing Moscow to divert troops from the Donbas front and create domestic pressure inside Russia toward ending the war—this may also be one of Kyiv’s more obscure strategic goals with the incursion and occupation of Sudzha and the adjacent areas.
We know that Zelensky wants to have at least a ceasefire agreement by the end of the year, but until now he did not have much to negotiate with. But a thousand square kilometers and 1,000 captured Russian troops (so far) now provide a sizable bargaining chip, something tangible to offer back in exchange for Russia giving up at least parts of the occupied Ukrainian territories.
Putin cannot risk his political survival and will try to do everything to push back the Ukrainians. However, if they do manage to hold on for a few more weeks in Kursk, that might eventually compel Moscow to offer more preferable terms to Kyiv in the upcoming peace talks, tentatively scheduled for November. Ukrainian withdrawal before the meeting might also give Russia the PR victory it needs back home to be able to negotiate without having to lose more face.
All in all, the Kursk incursion and the panic it caused (for example, in Belgorod) is not necessarily a major military feat but it is a powerful symbol nonetheless, which may hold the key to hastening the end of the war after two years of senseless bloodshed.
