On Wednesday, December 13th, the Dubai-hosted UN climate summit, COP28, concluded by presenting its final declaration. All 198 participating countries reached a non-binding deal which—in a world first—makes explicit mention of weaning countries off fossil fuel use.
Following two weeks of intense negotiations, the deal aims to reduce or wholly avoid the negative byproducts of climate change and was praised by COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber as “historic.” Amid the celebrations, delegates are avoiding the real implications of phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
At times COP28 presented itself as threatened by some its participants, with the Saudi Arabia-led oil producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) threatening to veto the adoption of a ‘green’ agenda, arguing that the world economy can slash emissions while continuing to use specific hydrocarbon-based fuels. After necessitating an additional day of negotiations, OPEC relented and Al Jaber was able to tell a jubilant plenary session that “we must take the steps necessary to turn this agreement into tangible actions.”
Critics of COP28 have focussed on the hypocrisy involved in flying thousands of delegates, typically by private jet, to luxury conference facilities in an oil state. A deeper criticism would involve thinking through the consequences of phasing out fossil fuels by 2050 (when few if any of the delegates in Dubai would still be involved in policy making). For many developing countries, restraint on oil, coal and gas power would present a formidable barrier to development.
In practice, some of the 198 states participating will show more commitment to the closing resolution than others. Small, climate-vulnerable island states will continue to lobby for what they see as necessary protective measures. More substantially, the response of European Union to COP28 indicates that certain European powers will take the 2050 target seriously, to the detriment of their own economies and populations.
Brussels, which before and during the summit has been among the most strident in pushing the green, anti-fossil fuel agenda, received news of the deal with unbridled enthusiasm. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was delighted, as she said in a statement:
It is good news for the whole world that we now have a multilateral agreement to accelerate emission reductions towards net zero by 2050, with urgent action in this critical decade.
On X, Wopke Hoekstra, the fledgling European Commissioner for the European Green Deal, hailed the event as the “beginning of a new phase. This is the beginning of a phase out.”
Given the current limitations of the renewable energy sectors, a cold, dark Europe would be the predictable result. Meanwhile OPEC countries—as signalled by their formal and grudging commitment to slashing hydrocarbon-based emissions—would continue to supply Europe’s competitors. By converting the final COP28 declaration into policy—as distinct from simply going through the motions in the likely style of so many of the other delegates—EU net zero enthusiasts are paving the way to ruin.
