The race for the European Union’s leadership roles is nearing the finish line even before it officially begins. Reports indicate that there is already a consensus between the majority of member states, which took shape during informal talks over the weekend.
The frontrunner to the European Council (EUCO) is Portugal’s ex-PM, António Costa―who recently resigned in a corruption scandal―while the EU’s foreign service will likely be led by the notoriously hawkish Estonian PM, Kaja Kallas.
Although the first round of designated negotiations about EU leadership will only begin later on Monday, June 17th, the first meeting between the EU leaders is expected to end with provisional nominations already in place. The leaders of the biggest countries agreed on the names during last week’s G7 Summit in Italy and then won around the others during the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland. No European electorates were involved in this process.
Five more years of VDL
First of all, Ursula von der Leyen’s second term at the helm of the European Commission is a fait accompli at this point, at least according to several diplomats privy to the discussions. Von der Leyen’s re-appointment is backed by all three of the biggest EU countries, which leaves smaller member states only to fall in line.
The biggest question was Germany: would the socialist party (SPD)-led government side with a candidate coming from the Christian democrats (CDU), their largest domestic opposition? Or would Chancellor Scholz try to impose his own party’s top candidate, the current labor commissioner, Nicolas Schmit?
In the end, Scholz—who is in a precarious political position due to his government’s poor electoral performance and, thus, in dire need of international allies—decided not to swim against the tide. “There is every indication that Ursula von der Leyen will be able to serve a second term,” the chancellor said, hinting at endorsing the Commission chief’s bid. “I believe it is now a matter of bringing everything together very quickly and coherently. And we will succeed.”
At the same time, Scholz warned against von der Leyen’s European People’s Party (EPP) forging a possible coalition with Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservative and Reformists (ECR) bloc, asking instead for the center-left “Ursula coalition” (EPP, S&D, and Renew) to continue leading the European Parliament.
The “center-right” majority (EPP, ECR, Renew) was pitched by the Italian prime minister’s Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) party last week, no doubt with the promise of all of the ECR backing von der Leyen in the Parliament. Even if she has secured the nomination of the majority of member states, von der Leyen will still need to be confirmed by the Parliament with 361 votes out of the 720—for which Meloni’s unshakeable influence over her ECR group might come in handy.
A scandal-hit socialist
Although a bit less certain, the other two most important EU jobs also have their frontrunners, carefully picked to maintain a balance between the major political groupings and geographical regions in Europe. That doesn’t mean they are the best for the job, but that was never the primary criterion.
The President of the European Council (EUCO), tasked with presiding over and fostering the consensus between the 27 heads of state, will likely be Portugal’s former socialist prime minister, António Costa, who resigned last November when a major corruption scandal engulfed his cabinet, personally implicating him.
Although Costa still denies any wrongdoing, there is an ongoing criminal investigation against him and his cabinet members, and the Portuguese overwhelmingly rejected his time in government during the March snap elections, which saw the surge of the now-governing center-right (AD) as well as the national conservative opposition (Chega).
Still, Costa’s spectacular failure at home seems not to be an issue during EU recruitment. We might also note that Costa is not the first European official to escape domestic prosecution by getting employed in Brussels. As German defense minister, von der Leyen was also hit by a corruption scandal involving some highly lucrative contracts in 2019 when Berlin decided it could no longer keep her around, making her the queen of Europe instead.
The only person who might still challenge Costa for the EUCO presidency is Danish PM Mette Frederiksen, who’s backed by a coalition of Nordic countries that do not like the idea of giving the job to a fiscally lax Mediterranean representative when half of Europe is running on fiscal deficit. But since that would mean the socialist S&D is probably left without a top job, Frederiksen will likely need to wait another term.
A sparrow-sized hawk
What’s perhaps an even more important position as the war in Ukraine rages on is the head of the EU’s foreign affairs service (EEAS), currently occupied by Josep Borrell, a socialist Spaniard from Catalonia who also served as European Parliament President before.
Borrell is set to be replaced by Estonia’s liberal prime minister, Kaja Kallas, who’s known across Europe for being one of the loudest and mostaggressive critics of Putin’s Russia. One can hardly blame her, as Estonians live in constant threat of a Ukraine-style invasion from their powerful neighbor. Still, Kallas’ hawkish confidence comes solely from being a NATO member, as Estonia is a nation of 1.3 million people, barely more than one-tenth of the size of Moscow alone.
Furthermore, Kallas was originally aiming at a much higher position and wanted to become the next NATO secretary general after Jens Stoltenberg’s term expires in October. That job will probably go to the outgoing Dutch PM Mark Rutte, however, and party due to Kallas being considered a “loose cannon” when it comes to Ukraine and her anti-Russian rhetoric, and the allies want to avoid further provoking Moscow with her nomination.
It seems, however, that what’s too much for NATO is okay for the EEAS, and Kallas will become the next EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs. Unless, of course, the negotiations take an unexpected turn—maybe in relation to the Commission portfolios—and somebody completely different will be picked in the end.
