European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would fancy another five years at the helm of the EU after all, it appears. After months of delays and speculations, she announced her bid to lead the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) lead candidate on Monday, February 19th, at a press conference in Berlin held by Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Die Welt reported.
While an important tradition, the ‘Spitzenkandidat’—or lead candidate—system carries no binding effect.
In theory, it would automatically give the European Commission presidency to the candidate of the largest party in the European Parliament. The EPP is set to remain the largest bloc, so securing this candidature during next month’s electoral congress in Bucharest should be enough for von der Leyen to propel her toward a second term.
However, since the Spitzenkandidat system has hardly more legitimacy under EU law than a coin toss, nothing is set in stone just yet. Regardless of who the lead candidate will be, the final nomination remains in the hands of the 27 EU leaders, whose negotiations could yield surprising results. Von der Leyen herself is the best example of this: she became Commission president despite EPP chief Manfred Weber being the Spitzenkadidat in 2019.
Being the lead candidate is a good start nonetheless, as a bit of additional legitimacy that others don’t have. The socialists (S&D) already nominated Nicolas Schmit, the current EU Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights, but there’s almost no chance that his bloc would gain parity with the EPP in the next four months, so von der Leyen’s Spitzenkandidat status seems like a done deal.
Ultimately, most of the S&D would likely back von der Leyen’s second term in the end, as would the majority of MEPs in the liberal Renew group, the third largest in the current Parliament. Back in 2019, these three parties had a simple majority in the Parliament between them and were able to confirm von der Leyen in her role as Commission president with 51%—just 9 votes more than what was required in the then-751 seat chamber.
Current polling data suggests that the three parties’ center-left coalition will significantly weaken, but it would still hold on to its simple majority by approximately 15-20 MEPs. This means that another von der Leyen presidency will either need the backing of nearly every single center-right, socialist, and liberal MEP, or gain considerable support from the greens, conservatives, or the extreme left. Since confirming the Commission president is done by a secret vote—something that’s quite rare in the EU Parliament—nothing can be certain until the very end of the process.
Nonetheless, von der Leyen still has the best chance of becoming the next Commission president, simply because of familiarity: both leaders and parliamentarians know what to expect from her and stability is a valuable resource during times of crisis. For better or worse, von der Leyen led Europe through two years of a pandemic and then two years of war in the east. Many in Brussels lack the confidence to try something new right now.
This is especially true given von der Leyen’s latest focus on defense and security. A former defense minister herself, the president has made the EU defense union one of her biggest priorities for the next five years. She is set to unveil the EU’s new, overarching defense strategy in a few weeks, along with her pick for a newly created defense portfolio in the Commission. The new commissioner’s mandate would include managing the EU’s proposed €100 billion defense fund and further joint procurement programs.
Incidentally, von der Leyen’s overly aggressive stance on Russia is what might have prevented her from running for the post of NATO chief. That—and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
According to Die Welt, von der Leyen could have been Washington’s top pick for replacing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg later this year, but the German chancellor categorically rejected the idea when asked about it, due to von der Leyen’s “radical opposition” to Moscow that could be problematic after the war ends. Of course, it might just be that Scholz is afraid to let his biggest domestic adversaries (von der Leyen’s CDU) have such a powerful position.
Regardless of why, von der Leyen won’t become NATO secretary-general without Germany’s support. The most likely contender for that role right now remains Dutch PM Mark Rutte, and maybe Estonian PM Kaja Kallas. Kallas would not only be the first female NATO chief but also the first Eastern European, both of which would be compelling arguments, were it not for the fact she is even more radically anti-Russian, which could get in the way.
In any case, von der Leyen will likely need to “settle” for a second term in Brussels, and only if she manages to rally enough leaders and MEPs to her cause. But just as von der Leyen appeared out of nowhere in 2019, we may see some unexpected twists this year as well.
