For the first time in years, the threat of Islamist terrorist attacks in the West has become very real, multiple intelligence sources indicate.
“Especially in the second half of 2022,” the Dutch intelligence agency AIVD saw an increase in intelligence about “attacks being planned” as well as “potential ISIS operatives,” according to the agency’s annual report, published on April 17th.
Afghanistan, the report notes, appears to be the hub of such activity.
Before the U.S. invasion of the country in 2001, it was the base of operations for Osama bin Laden and his terrorist organization Al Qaeda. Having carried out attacks in Yemen, Egypt, and Kenya, among other places, on September 11th, 2001, they set their sights on the U.S. itself, killing over 3,000 in attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon.
In response, the U.S. went into Afghanistan in search of bin Laden, ousting the Taliban regime which had provided protection for the Al Qaeda leader.
Ever since the U.S.’ messy exit from the Middle Eastern country in August 2021, the Islamic State—having lost its territory in Syria and Iraq and had two successive leaders liquidated—has been experiencing a resurgence there, spawning its Afghan branch, the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K).
The trend spells trouble for Afghanistan’s stability. While the Taliban has regained power following the U.S. departure and, like ISIS, is an Islamic extremist organization, they remain arch-rivals.
“In their magazine Voice of Khorasan, IS-K has announced another attack à la September 11th in the West,” says terrorism expert Beatrice De Graaf. “That may be grandstanding. But it is true that the group may be expanding there.”
“It is like Groundhog Day,” De Graaf remarked. “Just like in that movie, we are back to square one.”
De Graaf’s concern and the AIVD’s report were quickly confirmed by a new Washington Post exclusive, published on Saturday, April 22nd.
According to a Pentagon assessment, ISIS operatives are using Afghanistan as a base for “aspirational plotting” against American and European targets, it reveals.
These findings by U.S. intelligence—part of a spate of intel leaks Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira is accused of having posted to the Discord messaging platform—mention ISIS plans to hit major events like the FIFA World Cup soccer tournament. Other targets include embassies, churches, and business centers.
“ISIS has been developing a cost-effective model for external operations that relies on resources from outside Afghanistan, operatives in target countries, and extensive facilitation networks,” the top-secret assessment reads. “The model will likely enable ISIS to overcome obstacles—such as competent security services—and reduce some plot timelines, minimizing disruption opportunities.”
It went on to note that Pentagon officials in December were already aware of nine such plots being coordinated, with that number having risen to 15 by February.
