The number of migrants entering Britain via the Channel will increase by more than a third this year, according to UK officials, despite the Conservative Party government promising to clamp down on illegal crossings.
A record 45,756 migrants came to the UK in small boats last year, up from 28,526 in 2021 and 8,466 in 2020. The figure has risen year-on-year since at least 2018 when just 299 migrants made the dangerous crossing. The Tory manifesto of 2019—and others both before and after it—promised to “fix our immigration system.” Conservative officials have also spent much time and filled a great deal of column space announcing “radical” plans to tackle the issue. But officials believe 65,000 migrants will risk the journey this year.
The figures include those who “are detected on arrival in the UK” and those who are “brought to the UK” after being spotted by coastal authorities. Those who die while attempting the crossing, seemingly without serious deterrence, are not counted.
Even the number of successful crossings could be underreported, given what Migration Watch UK has described as the “sporadic” release of official data. Alp Mehmet, chairman of the think tank, highlighted that the 65,000 figure was also suggested in 2022, but said it “could turn out to be right this year” given that “the number of illegal crossings will surely increase.” He told The European Conservative:
[As] significant as their forecast is, the implication that nothing will happen this year to stem the tide of illegality.
What the home office doesn’t say is why they believe the number will go up again. The answer, of course, is that very few illegal arrivals are ever returned or removed and it’s easy money for the traffickers.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has ensured voters that new laws will be introduced “making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed.” Reform Party activist Peter Dain likened the pledge to “a dodgy car salesman that wants to sell you a banger.”
Tory Home Secretary Suella Braverman said the reputation of her party is “on the line” because of this issue. Last week, she told The Daily Telegraph that “we need to stop the boats to win the election. No ifs, no buts. That’s why the prime minister has made migration one of the five priorities.”
Just shy of 1,200 migrants crossed the Channel in January alone. Numbers are likely to increase as weather conditions improve.
