General Mark Milley has maintained that the war in Ukraine is most likely to end with a negotiated peace. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said neither Moscow nor Kyiv looks able to come out on the other side of this war having achieved their military aims.
Reports in recent weeks have focussed on how the West can better supply Ukraine with—or train its troops to more effectively use—ammunition. Far less is said—beyond instant dismissal—about the possibility of bringing the war to an end by means of negotiation. (Comments made last year by one senior Western diplomat, that “our strategic interest is probably best served in a long war, a quagmire that drains him [Vladimir Putin] militarily and economically so he cannot do this again,” could suggest that this omission is on purpose.) But according to General Milley, the war will end at the negotiating table, whether the West likes it or not.
Ahead of the war’s one-year anniversary, he told the Financial Times:
It will be almost impossible for the Russians to achieve their political objectives by military means. It is unlikely that Russia is going to overrun Ukraine. It’s just not going to happen.
It is also very, very difficult for Ukraine this year to kick the Russians out of every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine. It’s not to say that it can’t happen … But it’s extraordinarily difficult. And it would require essentially the collapse of the Russian military.
Following its interview, the paper summarised that General Milley “still believed the war would end at the negotiating table, with neither side likely to achieve their military aims.” At the moment, however, he accepted that both Moscow and Kyiv are “dug in pretty hard on their objectives” (facilitated, on Ukraine’s part, by major support from the West), meaning a route to the negotiating table could be difficult to pursue.
The U.S. official did not accept the view that talks could only take place within certain ”windows” of time, which some leaders have suggested remain out of reach. Instead, he said that the opportunity for negotiation is “a rolling window,” adding, “there’s opportunities at any moment in time.”
