China has been forced onto the defensive after figures revealed that it will be overtaken by India as the world’s most populous country by mid-2023. By this time, India’s growing population is set to reach around 1.428 billion, while China’s falling fertility rates will see its population drop to 1.425 billion. The data, from the United Nations Population Fund (UNPF) and other UN agencies, cannot precisely predict exactly when this crossover will take place.
The title of ‘the world’s most populous nation’ means “a lot” to Beijing, according to author Desmond Shum. The Financial Times added that the subject is “politically sensitive,” which explained why responses to the UN figures were “subdued.” Wang Wenbin, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, quoted in the paper, insisted that “population dividends don’t only depend on quantity but also on quality.” He added:
Our population dividend has not disappeared, our dividend is forming, and the impetus for development is strong.
But while China’s population outlook is set to “get worse,” demographers predict that India’s is likely to remain on the up. The Economic Times (of India) reported that “estimates by different agencies have suggested that India’s population is expected to keep rising for nearly three decades before it peaks at [1.65 billion],” and only then would “start declining.” Andrea Wojnar, the India representative of the UNPF, agreed with this outlook.
The impact of this could be significant for the Asian nations. Rory Green, the chief China economist at research company TS Lombard, highlighted that the news “adds to the ‘China slows and India rising’ narrative, which is important for investors when deciding their emerging market allocation.” Indian officials did not immediately offer public comment on the news.
