Nervous ambassadors from EU member states have voiced their dissatisfaction that the Biden administration holds too much sway over setting European strategic policy towards China. Officials speaking to the South China Morning Post voiced their complaints amid internal EU concern over potential economic decoupling from Beijing.
Despite moderate opposition from France and Hungary over the past year, Brussels has moved towards reducing its economic dependence on China through various legislative measures designed to safeguard European control of green technology and the supply of raw materials in what Commission officials have called a “de-risking” strategy.
Many feel that the United States is dictating the terms of this disengagement, leading some economists to fear that a disorganised break from China could cripple the European economy and end hopes for EU strategic autonomy entirely.
Success of EU green transition will hinge on access to critical raw materials (now supplied by China)
— Agathe Demarais (@AgatheDemarais) July 26, 2023
• EU wants to produce 10% of its consumption of critical raw materials by 2030
• Goal looks overambitious; instead EU will try to source supplies from other states than China pic.twitter.com/gzTYWq9sH9
EU officials and ambassadors have pointed specifically to the handiwork of EU Commission President von der Leyen’s staff, such as her head of cabinet, Bjoern Seibert. Seibert is known for his close connection to the Biden administration and his stridently anti-Chinese agenda.
Many diplomats have warned that Seibert, a close aide to von der Leyen since her time as German defence minister, is taking his cues on China from Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Under Sullivan’s influence, the de-risking strategy is “too far too fast” for the European economy and EU strategic interest.
Within the EU, member states are divided on future relations with China. Italy, for instance, announced its decision to formally withdraw from the Chinese Belt and Road initiative this week.
Aside from the objections over American influence, many European national governments see the new protectionist measures against China as another way for the EU to centralise foreign and economic policy, leaving many free trading governments worried about a cataclysmic escalation in tariffs, should China respond negatively.
The Economist reports that Germany is the most exposed European economy to decoupling from China as Berlin announced a hardline strategy against Beijing. Meanwhile, officials fear a repeat of the economic and geopolitical damage caused by sanctions against Russia.
🇩🇪🇨🇳 – Germany is (by far) the EU economy that would have most to lose from decoupling
— Agathe Demarais (@AgatheDemarais) July 24, 2023
• Total exports and affiliates' revenues in China represent ~10% of Germany's GDP
• By comparison, US's exposure to China is more than half lower, at ~4% of GDP pic.twitter.com/2XWbs2WH9P
The EU has already imposed partial sanctions against China due to allegations of Chinese companies funnelling European military hardware into Ukraine to aid the Russian army. China has already cancelled a visit by the bloc’s head of foreign policy owing to the perception that it is following the United States into confrontation.
Since 2020 relations between the West and China have deteriorated due to the mystery around the origins of the COVID virus, espionage fears, China’s ambiguity over the war in Ukraine, as well as fears over Beijing’s control of the global economy.
At a committee meeting in the European Parliament earlier this month, Commission officials and business figures warned against risking economic ties with China over the question of Taiwan as most EU nations continue to operate a One China policy that does not recognise Taiwanese sovereignty.
A trade embargo launched by China against Lithuania over the recognition of Taiwan last year has clarified the need in some EU policy circles to begin to step back from China economically, although the exact nature of this decoupling is still to be determined as well as how member states will respond.