A return to socialist rule in Spain looks likely after Catalan separatists gave their strongest indication yet that they would back PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez—in exchange for reduced charges for their exiled leadership.
The odds of a socialist-led coalition with separatists greatly increased last Thursday as the support of Catalan nationalist parties Junts and ERC was sufficient to secure the installation of a PSOE speaker of the house .
Despite earlier expectations of a right-wing coalition government between the conservative Partido Popular and the populist VOX, the Right did not make up the numbers to govern after July’s snap election. Incumbent Spanish PM Sánchez is now seeking to build a risky alliance with regionalists to return to power.
There is a growing consensus in Madrid that there is an agreement brewing between PSOE and the separatists, with government sources describing to the press how ‘the hardest part is done’ following the election of a socialist speaker.
Additional language rights and a new committee to investigate state harassment were enough to temporarily placate Catalan nationalists for last week’s speaker vote. The ultimate goal for separatists is a full pardon for exiled Junts leader and self-described President of Catalonia Carles Puigdemont, currently battling extradition from Belgium.
While Sánchez has stated that a total amnesty for Puigdemont is off the table, there is an implicit understanding that PSOE will offer the Catalans the next best thing in order to secure their backing for a coalition.
Puigdemont caused uproar in 2017 for his role in organising an independence referendum with the Catalan MEP forced to go into exile in Belgium for fear of prosecution. The Catalans have made the amnesty a red-line issue that would apply to those involved in the bungled 2017 independence referendum. Some conservatives fear PSOE humouring the separatists could reignite a new political crisis and potential Catalan secession.
Sánchez has previously lobbied to downgrade the original treason charge facing Puigdemont with the Catalan politician’s personal vote essential to the election of the PSOE speaker of the house last week, signalling that the Catalans are serious about a coalition deal.
While the Spanish Constitution prohibits full pardons, PSOE will likely decriminalise many of the remaining charges facing Puigdemont.
King Felipe VI mediated talks between political factions at the Zarzuela Palace Monday morning, August 21st, with PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo still adamant to be instituted as the next PM, despite not having a majority of MPs. The talks were boycotted by Basque and Catalan nationalists. The monarch is preparing for personal discussions with individual party leaders Tuesday afternoon to try to return his nation to some degree of political stability.
Under Spanish constitutional law, King Felipe is obligated to select the candidate for PM most likely to be able to form a new government in the Spanish Parliament. Nationalist commentators are warning the monarch must not concede to the formation of an unstable left-wing coalition government that risks shattering Spanish national unity by aligning with separatists.
