Sovereigntist and nationalist forces are set to make a comeback in Slovakia, where parliamentary elections will be held on Saturday, September 30th. In the first of many national elections across Europe this autumn—to be followed by local elections in Germany, and parliamentary elections in Poland and the Netherlands—the Slovakian vote could set the mood, as the continent grows weary of the cost-of-living crisis, the latest waves of migration and the war in Ukraine.
Social conservatives, opponents of mass migration, and sceptics of funding Ukraine will most likely dominate the elections in the Central European state, if opinion polls are to be taken seriously. Former Prime Minister Robert Fico’s party, Smer, is making a comeback and is expected to win with 20-24% of the votes. Despite being a member of the Party of European Socialists, Smer—which governed Slovakia between 2006-10 and 2012-20—completely opposes the mainstream leftist narrative on many issues, and is more aligned with conservative forces, such as the Hungarian governing party Fidesz, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Resonating with Orbán, Fico has called for a diplomatic solution to the war, rapprochement with Moscow, and has been one of the loudest critics of sending weapons to Ukraine, saying in an election rally recently that if he were re-elected as prime minister, he would “not send a single round [of bullets] to Ukraine”, because “we are a peaceful country.”
On migration, he has urged the government to implement stricter border controls, as the number of people illegally crossing the borders of Slovakia has increased by nine times to 27,000 this year compared to a year ago. “We know nothing about them, they have no documents, they make up names, dates of birth, but the government allows them to stay here,” Fico said at a news conference, claiming the government lets in every migrant who arrives in Slovakia irregularly.
On LGBT issues he said: “While progressives ponder whether they are girls, boys or helicopters, we clearly state that gender ideology has no place in our schools, and marriage is the union of a man and a woman.”
Fico has also criticized the EU for imposing “pointless” economic sanctions on Russia that harm EU members and for withholding funds from Hungary for alleged rule-of-law breaches. He suggested that it is his country where the rule of law should be examined because the centre-right, liberal parties that have been in power since 2020 have used the judiciary to “eliminate” the opposition. As we previously reported, the heads of Slovakia’s security services were charged with conspiring to obstruct investigations in corruption cases that date back to the era of the Fico Government. Fico called the charges a “police coup,” a move that could harm his party before the elections.
However, it is the four parties that have governed Slovakia for the past three-and-a-half years that are taking a beating in the polls. All of them are hovering around the 5% and 7% threshold needed for parties and electoral alliances needed to enter parliament. Voters are weary of the economic hardships caused by COVID restrictions, and high energy prices and inflation linked to the Ukraine war. Support for NATO membership has decreased from 72% to 58%; support for EU membership from 77% to 64%, and trust in the national parliament is at a lowly 31%. With regards to the hottest topics in the campaign, surveys suggest that the majority, 51% of Slovakian citizens, want an end to aiding Ukraine, and 78% demand a tougher migration policy.
Juraj Marušiak, Director of the Institute of Political Science at the Slovak Academy of Sciences told The European Conservative:
An arrogant style of governing, permanent conflicts within the coalition, the failure to deal with the pandemic and the incompetence of several members of the government caused Fico and his party to find themselves again in first place.
Voters are turning to opposition parties, especially Smer.
“Fico’s support has been revived by the chaos under the outgoing democratic coalition. Those voting for Smer are seeking stability. They understand that the party allowed corruption to flourish, but at least they governed competently,” political analyst Milan Nič told Al Jazeera.
Sure enough, another Social Democratic party, Hlas—that split from Smer three years ago and is led by Fico’s former deputy, Peter Pellegrini—is set to receive 12-15% of the votes. But right behind Smer is another opposition force, Progressive Slovakia, a liberal, pro-Ukraine and pro-LGBT rights party, which has the backing of 16-20% of voters.
Another seven or eight parties could make it into parliament, so the big question will be what kind of coalition could be formed. Fico may choose Pellegrini as a partner, or a host of other conservative, economic liberal and nationalist parties, including the eurosceptic party Republika—polling at 8%—whose leader, Milan Uhrík said he wants to organise a referendum on quitting NATO in the next four years. In his response to The European Conservative, Marián Ďuriš, foreign policy advisor of Republika wrote that “Slovak citizens must be the priority of the Slovak government. We can help Ukrainian women and children in a humanitarian way. We have been doing this since the beginning of the conflict. However, at the same time, we have exhausted all our options and the sending of money and weapons to Kiev must be immediately stopped.” He added:
We cannot support the “green agenda” which destroys our industry, local companies and economy. We cannot support the “rainbow agenda” which questions our traditions and family as the basic unit of our society. The Slovak Republic and our people have many problems what we need to deal with first: the health system, education, recovery of public finances and increase in pensions.
Meanwhile, Progressive Slovakia—whose leader Michal Šimečka has called for Slovakians to choose a “European, dignified future instead of chaos and isolation”—has fewer options on the table, but could sway some of the conservative parties with a more pro-EU, pro-Ukraine line, or even Pellegrini’s Hlas to join them.
According to Juraj Marušiak:
Voter fragmentation seems to be very high. Much will depend on which parties make it into parliament. The question will be whether Smer’s main challenger, Progressive Slovakia will have a chance to get partners with whom it could form a majority.
