Despite the apparent lack of political will from member states to provide more ammunition to Ukraine, the EU will continue to push for meeting the target of one million rounds of artillery shells delivered by March next year, the bloc’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell said after meeting the 27 defense ministers on Tuesday, November 14th, asking member states to prioritize support for Kyiv over their own economic interests.
“We are doing a lot, but … we have to do more and faster,” the high representative said during Tuesday’s press conference. “The objective of one million rounds of ammunition remains the political goal. … It’s ambitious, but it remains our goal and we continue to push for it.”
The meeting of the defense ministers came under the shadow of news that Russia, after a respite of weeks, again had started missile attacks on Kyiv.
The promise of one million artillery rounds to be delivered to Ukraine by March next year was set by EU leaders during the spring, supported by various subsidy and financial support packages from the EU, totaling €3 billion, to boost the production capacity of the European weapons industry.
Now, with less than four months remaining until the ambitious deadline, many have begun to harbor skepticism about the viability of the project, with EU countries and the Commission shifting the blame to each other.
“We have to assume that the one million will not be achieved,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said ahead of the Council meeting in Brussels, adding that the objective was not realistic to begin with.
There have been voices that have said, “Be careful. One million is easy to decide, the money is there, but the production has to be there.” Unfortunately, those voices are now right.
So far, as Borrell confirmed during the evening press conference, about 300,000 rounds have been delivered via the first track of the Ukraine ammo deal, using existing national stockpiles for which member states get reimbursed from EU funds. Furthermore, another 118,000 rounds have been ordered (but not yet delivered) through the second track, the subsidized procurement of ammunition and missiles.
Production capacity is another reason behind falling short of the target, Pistorius added, doubting the short-term effectiveness of the EU’s €500 million investment package to ramp up the output of Europe’s weapons industry. “Even a decision on the war economy, from which I expressly distance myself, will not lead to production starting up tomorrow or being able to cover the demand,” the German minister said.
The Commission insists, however, that the industry is more than able to produce the desired numbers, and the problem lies with the member states, who are reluctant to place enough orders through the procurement scheme and continue to let their industries export to third countries instead of Ukraine.
Whether or not Europe will be able to meet the one million rounds target by March will depend on how quickly member states will make new orders—and whether they are willing to prioritize Ukraine again, both Borrell and Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton stressed.
Ammunition production “has to be re-routed and re-prioritized,” Borrell said during the evening press conference.
The European industry exports a lot to third countries. So, we are asking the member states to re-route, to change their priorities, in order to give priority to the production for Ukraine.”
Separately, no consensus has been reached on a proposed, €20 billion worth of long-term military assistance package through the European Peace Facility (EPF) either, as various member states still wait for further technical details before giving it the green light. Borrell, however, is hoping that a breakthrough, even if not a final agreement, will happen during the Council’s upcoming December summit.
Following Kyiv’s sanctions of a Hungarian bank and leaked plans to hurt the Hungarian economy through a pipeline sabotage, Hungary has, to date, blocked the eighth tranche of EPF funds from being paid out to Ukraine. Borrell, however, said the parties will meet shortly again and have a good chance at reaching a deal that would deliver €500 million in financial assistance for Ukraine.
