There is already talk of a second ceasefire once fighting in the Israel-Hamas war resumes. But goalpost shifting by Hamas means talks ahead of any upcoming hostage release deal will be more hotly contested than the last.
The terror group is currently releasing just one of the 240 mostly Israeli hostages taken during its October 7th attacks for every three Palestinian prisoners set free by Israel. Over the course of the current ceasefire, which much of the West is demanding be extended again, Hamas has mainly released young children and elderly women—some of whom were taunted by Gazans during their handover—while Israel has released prisoners, many of whom it says are affiliated with Hamas and who, though not convicted, are alleged to have committed a range of offences.
Thoughts are now beginning to extend to the possible release of Israeli men and soldiers—both men and women—held by Hamas, which has signalled that it will demand a higher ‘price’ for these captives.
In 2006, Hamas released an abducted Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been held for five years in exchange for more than 1,000—one thousand—Palestinian prisoners. Retired U.S. Ambassador Dennis Jett told NPR that it “wasn’t lost on Hamas” that such a steep price could be demanded of Israel again.
Jerusalem may, however, be wary of such a controversial number, especially after one of the prisoners released in 2006, Yahya Sinwar, went on to lead Hamas in Gaza and to plan the October 7th terror attacks. For the same reason, The Times has suggested that “even Hamas might be discouraged from asking as high a price again, though its spokesmen have mentioned the Shalit deal.”
But before talks for the next ceasefire can begin, Israel is already being pressured by officials in the West to keep the existing one going longer. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that “to continue down the path of terror, violence, killing, and war is to give Hamas what they seek. We can’t do that.” His comments appeared to contradict the official U.S. stance that a prolonged ceasefire would mainly benefit Hamas, granting it enough time to regroup.
President Biden’s comments also came ahead of today’s ‘International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People,’ held annually, though this year piggybacked by Hamas. The terror group has called for global protests and “solidarity marches,” according to the German paper Jüdische Allgemeine. The paper added that this poses particular threats for the West’s Jewish communities which have already seen a massive increase in antisemitic incidents since October 7th.
