There are many losers in this morning’s Rochdale by-election result. The Conservative Party never expected to do well, but will still be frustrated at having failed to capitalise in any meaningful sense on Labour’s failings. Labour HQ has seen just how electorally damaging its Gaza stance could be if majority-Muslim areas back other, more anti-Israel candidates. Even Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party, which made significant gains in two by-elections earlier in February, performed badly.
Labour managed to turn this safe seat into a disaster zone. Recordings emerged of official candidate Azhar Ali telling a meeting last year that Israel deliberately “allowed” the Hamas terror attacks on October 7th in order to get a “green light to do whatever they bloody want”. He doubled down by blaming “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters” for hostile press coverage, a version of the antisemitic cliché about Jews controlling the media. By the time he was investigated and then suspended over his conspiratorial remarks about the October 7 pogrom, it was too late for Labour to field a replacement.
Ali stayed on the ballot paper as the official Labour candidate, disowned by his former party, and finished a distant fourth. In response, Starmer has promised greater vetting of candidates in future—but harsher criticisms of Israel could hold the key to winning over Muslim voters.
But the biggest loser, according to ex-UKIP leader Nigel Farage, is British politics itself, for which the vote offers “a very, deeply disturbing, worrying” sign of things to come.
There is, of course, a winner: George Galloway—or, as he calls himself, “Gaza George.” His campaign was focused not on Rochdale but on the Middle East. His aim was to win the backing of the constituency’s Muslim voters, who make up almost a third of the local population. He said at the count that his win “is for Gaza,” adding that “every Muslim is bitterly angry at [Labour leader Sir] Keir Starmer.” This vote, he said, will “spark a movement, a landslide, a shifting of the tectonic plates in scores of parliamentary constituencies.”
The result may signal difficulties ahead in constituencies with a significant Muslim electorate, previously assumed to be loyal to Labour. While these core voters defected in Rochdale—and may follow suit elsewhere—a wider issue is the huge disenchantment of voters, just 39.7% of whom turned out.
Galloway was a Labour MP until 2003 when, during his firm criticisms of the Iraq War and Britain’s involvement in it, he was accused of “bringing the party into disrepute.” He was later MP for the Respect Party, amalgamating elements of both the Socialist Workers Party and the Muslim Association of Britain.
Alongside his opposition to the Iraq War, which saw him appear before the U.S. Senate in a much-viewed hearing, Galloway has gained notoriety for his radical anti-Israel stance. In 2013, he walked out of a debate at the University of Oxford, declaring: “I don’t debate with Israelis.” Pointing to his “historic inflammatory rhetoric,” the Campaign Against Antisemitism charity today said: “We are extremely concerned by how he may use the platform of the House of Commons.”
But Galloway also holds fairly socially conservative views when it comes to the family unit and law and order, emphasising his complex political nature which has seen him both gain friends and enemies from all sides.
The new MP has won his latest seat representing his own ‘leftwing populist’ Workers Party of Britain, which was formed in 2019.
Farage, who less than a decade ago campaigned alongside Galloway to secure the Brexit vote, responded to the result by claiming to see the growth of “sectarian politics” in which people are voting purely along religious lines.
He cited sources at the count who said that some vote card boxes from Muslim-majority wards in Rochdale were 95% for Galloway. Farage also suggested that in some areas, people who don’t even speak English will have voted for Galloway, perhaps following orders from their imams.
There has been particular criticism over Galloway’s alleged sending of separate campaign letters to Muslim and non-Muslim voters. The first, opening with the greeting “A’Salaam o Aleukum,” focused solely on Gaza and “war crimes” allegedly carried out by Israel. The second didn’t mention this once, and focuses instead on Galloway’s socially conservative beliefs. It said, for example, that he would arrest members of the grooming gangs, for which the town has sadly become known, himself “if I have to.”
The result has also prompted a fresh discussion on Britain’s system of mass postal voting, which critics say is open to electoral intimidation and fraud. More than a quarter of the electorate voted by post, which Reform leader Richard Tice said was “unquestionably open to significant abuse.” The papers are being careful to highlight that “there is no indication of any significant voting irregularities in Rochdale.”
Reform said its campaign team had also been subjected to death threats, “vile racist abuse” and “daily intimidation and slurs,” painting a picture of a particularly ugly electoral campaign.
Local businessman David Tully was the runner-up following a campaign focusing on local issues. He presented himself as the anti-Galloway candidate.
Galloway secured just shy of 40% of the vote with a relatively low turnout of 39.7%, showing perhaps more than anything else that voters in the Great Manchester town, and certainly across the rest of Britain, are tired of the Conservative-Labour duopoly.
