French right-wing populist leader Marine Le Pen has proposed a merger between the two sovereigntist conservative blocs in the European Parliament, arguing that a united Right could be the second largest group in Brussels. The parties have usually dismissed the idea of merging the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) groups before, but the expulsion of the German Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) from ID last week has put every option back on the table.
The ID group voted last week to exclude AfD following a controversy regarding statements made by the party’s top candidate seemingly relativizing the actions of SS soldiers during World War II. Several ID parties, including Le Pen’s Rassemblement National and Italian Lega declared they would no longer be willing to work with the German party. Speaking to the Italian daily Corriere della Sera on Sunday, May 26th, Le Pen pitched her idea of creating a new sovereigntist formation by joining the forces of her ID group and the ECR group—currently slated to become third and fourth largest blocs after June 9th—under one giant umbrella that would have the power to stand up to the leftist-globalist majority in Brussels.
“This is the moment to unite, it would be truly useful,” Le Pen said, directing her message to Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, de facto leader of ECR. “If we manage, we will become the second group of the European Parliament. I think that we should not let an opportunity like this pass us by.”
It makes sense that any possible organizational reshuffles on the Right should be discussed between Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) and Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), as both parties are on track to become the largest delegations of their respective groups. As long as they are in favor of joining forces, most of their allies would go along.
A potential ECR-ID merger has been the subject of rumors around Brussels for months now, but most parties and leaders dismissed the idea as infeasible due to certain long-standing enmities between some member parties, as well as the main political difference between the groups: Ukraine. The Atlanticist ECR strongly favors the mainstream EU position of financing and arming Ukraine for as long as it takes, while most ID members place national interests first and advocate for diplomatic solutions instead.
It’s no coincidence that Le Pen made her offer now, just days after the German Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) was stripped of its ID membership. AfD has long been seen by many in the ECR—especially the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party—as the main factor preventing much closer cooperation. With AfD out, Le Pen can now put the question back on the table, hoping that joining with Meloni (who’s already leading a government) can help her in her bid to claim France’s presidency in 2027.
For her part, the Italian prime minister did not rule out accepting the offer, although she was careful enough in her initial response not to pledge anything concrete. During an interview with Rai TV later on the same day, Meloni said she didn’t have any red lines when it came to potential new allies, as she’s been dismissed as an extremist by mainstream forces as well.
“My main objective is to build an alternative majority to the one that has governed in recent years. A center-right majority—in other words—which will send the left into opposition in Europe,” Meloni explained.
Meloni’s choice of words (“center-right majority”) indicates she’s still considering closer cooperation with the European People’s Party (EPP) as well, which is set to keep its position as the largest bloc in the Parliament. Despite being nominally center-right, the EPP has been much more aligned with the leftist parties so far. But after seeing their dwindling numbers in the polls, it has begun courting ECR members, especially Meloni, by offering them mainstream legitimacy in exchange for ditching their alliance with the ID.
This means, in practice, that both things cannot happen simultaneously. Meloni could not forge a “center-right” alliance between EPP and ECR if she were to merge with ID, as Le Pen’s RN and others in the latter group are still a red line for the center-right.
Furthermore, a merger between ECR and ID would also import domestic disputes to Brussels. In Italy, for instance, Meloni’s main national conservative competitor is Matteo Salvini’s Lega, currently sitting in ID. Domestic reconciliation to fight the common enemy in Brussels is not impossible though, especially if Le Pen thinks she could swallow her pride and join forces with Eric Zemmour’s Reconquête, the most recent addition to ECR.
Then there’s the question of the Hungarian ruling party Fidesz and other currently non-aligned members. The latest polls put EPP first with 176 seats, followed by the social democrat S&D with 144. ECR and ID combined would only reach 136 seats, meaning that even a joined group would need Fidesz’s 10-12 MEPs to have a shot at claiming the second place. However, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s pro-ceasefire approach to Ukraine does not sit well with some in the ECR, like the Czech ODS or the Sweden Democrats.
The only thing we know for now is that every option remains on the table until after the election when each group begins crunching the numbers and comparing scenarios. If there is some kind of merger between the two conservative blocs despite all the odds, that would indeed be a game-changer in Brussels. Until then, there is only hope.
