The European Union is ready to punish France if Marine Le Pen’s nationalist-sovereigntist National Rally (Rassemblement National) wins the upcoming French parliamentary elections, writes establishment media outlet Politico. According to the article, the European Commission may not let a right-wing government “off the hook” with regards to France’s overspending, unlike their leniency with the current and previous cabinets. This is clearly a sign that the EU institutions use their ‘power of the purse’ to penalise only those member states they politically disagree with.
The European Commission can launch a so-called excessive deficit procedure against an EU country if it breaches or is in risk of breaching the deficit threshold of 3% of GDP, or if it has a government debt level above 60% of GDP, which is not diminishing at a satisfactory pace. The procedure may result in a fine.
The Commission in the past came under criticism for failing to enforce the deficit rules, especially in the case of France, with previous Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker famously declaring in 2016 that they had given France leeway on fiscal rules “because it is France.”
The country’s budget deficit reached 5.5% of GDP last year, and its public debt is forecast to climb to 114% of GDP next year, and—admits Politico—Brussels will be less reluctant to punish a country that is governed by a nationalist government. “It’s one thing to let off a pro-EU, statesmanlike leader for the type of reckless spending that endangers the economic stability of the eurozone. It’s quite another if it’s carried out brazenly by a nationalist firebrand who doesn’t think the rules are worth the paper they’re written on in the first place.”
The Brussels elite is already asserting that Marine Le Pen would “disregard” EU rules with an “irresponsible spending plan.” As Hungarian conservative publication, PestiSrácok puts it:
In Brussels, they have practically admitted that punishments are handed out on political grounds. Whether France can expect to be punished for its loose interpretation of the budget deficit targets, has essentially been tied to election results by officials in Brussels.
The eurosceptic and anti-immigration National Rally has said it would slash taxes on fuel and energy and pledged to take back control of energy policy from the EU. It has also promised to lower the retirement age to 60 and increase wages for some public servants, writes Bloomberg. “Financial markets have only heard the caricature of our project. When they read about it, they find it rather reasonable,” Marine Le Pen told daily Le Figaro.
As we recently reported, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French National Assembly and called snap elections which will take place on June 30th and July 7th. His actions came following a heavy European election defeat of his Renaissance party last week, with National Rally taking first place. Opinion polls say that the National Rally will receive 35% of the vote in the first round of voting, the left-wing New Popular Front will be second on 26% and centrist Renaissance will finish in third with 19%.
The New Popular Front would also reverse much of Macron’s agenda, including raising the minimum wage by 13%, lowering the legal pension age from 64 years to 60, capping energy prices and restoring the wealth tax, writes The Economist.
If the EU were indeed to punish France on ideological grounds, it would not be the first time its political bias is made evident. The Commission and the European Parliament have repeatedly harassed the conservative governments of Hungary and Poland for alleged ‘rule of law’ violations and withheld the disbursement of EU funds it owed to these countries. Poland was exonerated this year as soon as a left-liberal government came into power.
