On February 12th, Brussels will host the first meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, known as the Ramstein Group, since Donald Trump took office. This meeting, led by the United Kingdom and attended by new U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is shaping up to be a turning point in the Western strategy regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
The meeting takes place in a context marked by the arrival in Ukraine of the first F-16 fighters donated by the Netherlands, and the French Mirage-2000s, a significant reinforcement for the Ukrainian Air Force. These aircraft, already serviced by Ukrainian pilots trained in Europe, represent a key step in strengthening Kyiv’s defensive capabilities against new Russian offensives.
The appointment of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense and his immediate participation in the Ramstein Group underscores Washington’s intention to maintain its influence in military support for Ukraine. The United States could assume a more active role in leading future Ramstein meetings when cracks in Western support for Kyiv are beginning to emerge. The goal is clear: to secure any victory possible to obtain better conditions when negotiating with Russia—a negotiation that will come sooner or later under Donald Trump’s leadership.
Hegseth’s presence in Brussels comes at a crucial moment: the Trump administration has publicly expressed its intention to reassess military aid to Ukraine, demanding more significant commitment from European partners. This could translate into a redistribution of financial and logistical efforts among NATO members.
The recent arrival of the French Mirage-2000s and Dutch F-16s represents a milestone in military assistance to Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated on Thursday, February 6th, that these aircraft will modernize the country’s air defense and enhance its ability to counter Russian aggression.
France, for its part, confirmed that it had fulfilled its promise to send the aircraft announced by Emmanuel Macron last June, along with training and instruction for Ukrainian pilots. However, the exact number of aircraft delivered remains a mystery, although France is expected to provide around twenty Mirage-2000s.
Beyond military reinforcement, the Ramstein meeting will also explore possibilities for a future peace negotiation. Fatigue in some European capitals over a prolonged conflict and uncertainty about the future of U.S. aid has reopened the debate on the feasibility of a negotiated solution.
The scenario to be discussed in Brussels could include proposals for a conditional ceasefire or a negotiation framework with Moscow. However, the Ukrainian government insists that any peace talks must be based on the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory.
This is the official version. The widely whispered rumor in Brussels is that Kyiv would recognize the loss of territory to achieve peace, accompanied by EU accession for the government-controlled area and neutrality regarding NATO membership.
