It seems that Ukraine will have to sign a new agreement with the U.S. that Trump is referring to as a “guarantee” for Washington.
In a previous article last year titled “US-Ukraine-Russian War: Is It Also About the Money?”, this writer discussed this issue in some detail. Thanks to U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, everyone now knows one of the more compelling reasons behind the Ukraine war with Russia. And it has little to do with Kiev’s “agency,” “democracy,” and “liberalism.” The latter are merely ‘talking points’ for public consumption—what Noam Chomsky and Ed Hermann called ‘manufactured consent’ in their 1988 seminal work.
Lindsey Graham voiced out loud part of an agenda that is usually hidden from public view or the media. Ukraine is a veritable “gold mine,” Graham confessed, and America can’t afford to lose control of it.
Here’s the translation of Graham’s admission: it’s about the money.
The 2024 World Economic Forum reports that Ukraine “holds immense potential as a major global supplier of critical raw materials” that could be “essential” for the defense, high-tech and green energy industries. In fact, the nation’s rich black soil, noted for the abundant agriculture it produces, also boasts the largest titanium reserves in Europe, amounting to 7% of global reserves.
Prior to the conflict with Moscow in 2022, Ukraine was an important titanium supplier for military industries, globally. Scarce rare-earth metals found in abundance in Ukraine include beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, graphite, apatite, fluorite, and nickel. Moreover, the country possesses Europe’s largest proven lithium reserves, estimated at 500,000 tons. The mineral is strategic for its use in batteries for everything from EV vehicles to cell phones.
“Ukraine has very valuable rare earths,” Trump told journalists on Monday, February 3rd. According to the president, the U.S. has been “handing them [Ukraine] money hand over fist” and wanted some “guarantees.” He added, “We are looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they are going to secure what we are giving to them with the rare earths and other things.”
Last week, Trump halted all aid programs run by USAID, a soft-power agency that (under the aegis of humanitarian development) distributes billions of dollars each year for projects that, ostensibly, foster U.S. interests around the world. The agency oversees numerous multimillion dollar aid schemes in Ukraine.In response, Ukrainian MPs have appealed to the EU to replace the lost American aid, calling foreign assistance “an important part of our path to democratic development and sustainability.” They also stated that Ukrainian recipients of American grants had been hit “worse than it may seem.”
According to Germany’s Kiel Institute for World Economics, as of October 2024, the U.S. had provided Ukraine with some $92 billion in financial and military assistance, while EU nations and the UK had allocated $131 billion.
In fact, since 2022, the U.S. Congress has authorized roughly $175 billion for Ukraine, but a significant portion of that funding has gone to American industries and various U.S. government activities related to the conflict. Nevertheless, it is still understandable that an America First policy would like to see some more concrete returns on that substantial investment.
Senator Graham is right, Ukraine has substantial reserves of critical minerals, and there is no doubt that these raw materials are of strategic importance. Especially as the global supply of many critical minerals is complicated because they are concentrated in limited locations, which makes them objects of geopolitics. In some ways the current situation regarding scarce resources correlates with the global concerns over oil since the 1970s. The U.S. Department of Energy has created a Critical Minerals List of which some 50 of the most strategic and in short supply are found in Ukraine.
The United States, by the way, is not the only global actor eyeing Ukraine’s natural resources. The EU (in its efforts to reduce its reliance on China) has also shown great interest in Ukraine’s critical mineral deposits. Notably, the Ukrainian Geological Survey has since 2022 worked with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to catalog Ukrainian deposits for the purpose of attracting Western investors.
So despite the war continuing, Western investors have been queuing up, even from such distances as the Pacific Rim—Australia and Japan, especially. And it is the American-Ukrainian collaboration, the BGV Group, “that has the largest and most diverse stake in Ukraine’s critical minerals.”
It appears the “guarantees” President Trump requires from Kiev are already in the pipeline, and have been since the Ukraine-Russia proxy war began three years ago. The only difference is now there appears to be an overt quid pro quo—continued American assistance for Ukrainian rare earth minerals.
Seems everyone is just waiting for the payoff.
