With less than one week to go until crucial parliamentary elections, Dutch politics is set for a shake-up it has not seen in a long time.
After a 13-year stint as prime minister, Mark Rutte exited national politics this past summer following his coalition government’s collapse over its infighting on asylum policy.
Snap elections were called, and all parties found themselves in campaigning mode overnight.
On November 22nd, Dutch voters will head to the polls to decide how all 150 seats of their House of Representatives are to be distributed among 18 parties, after which the process of forming a new coalition government can begin—with a truly new prime minister.
That new PM and his partners will have to address the various crises facing the nation—from a high cost of living and a housing shortage to healthcare, immigration, and the nitrogen debacle.
The question, now very much on everyone’s lips, is what a post-Rutte Netherlands will look like.
At least three political parties will be needed, current polls suggest, to form a coalition government.
While, as ever in Dutch politics, the field is a crowded one, Rutte’s ruling liberal-conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), now headed by Dilan Yeşilgöz, is leading in the polls. Three rivals are, however, not far behind.
By far its greatest threat is a new kid on the block; the center-right Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC), founded in August by former Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) MP Pieter Omtzigt, which sells itself as an anti-establishment party.
Second is PvdA-GL, a merger of the Labour Party and the Green Left, which formed in July and is led by Frans Timmermans, former vice-president of the European Commission and driving force behind the Green Deal and the Nature Restoration Act. Timmermans has made no secret of the fact that he seeks the premiership in order to make sure the Netherlands meets its EU-dictated climate goals.
And then there is Geert Wilders’ nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV). While known for its EU skepticism and tough stance on immigration (especially from Muslim countries), in recent years Wilders had softened his party’s rhetoric to be more acceptable in the context of a coalition government. While the party still seeks an asylum freeze, plans to establish a separate ‘ministry of remigration and de-Islamization,’ for example, have been shelved.
The latest poll by I&O Research (published November 14th) suggests that the former prime minister’s party VVD would secure 27% of the vote, Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC 25%, the PvdA-GL 23%, and the PVV 20%.
While the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging, BBB), which started as a protest movement against the government’s nature/climate policies which affected the country’s farmers, came in first in last March’s regional elections, it is not exactly crushing it in the polls.
At present, Pieter Omtzigt is the one to watch. The Netherlands’ single most popular politician, he played a key role in uncovering the child benefit scandal that led to the collapse of Rutte’s government in 2021. Rutte subsequently demoted him from his parliamentary frontbench role, and the CDA denied him the role as its party leader.
Following that disappointment, he left the party and became an independent MP.
A well-established parliamentarian for the Christian Democrats (CDA) for two decades, Omtzigt has, nevertheless, managed to position himself as a new political voice.
Omtzigt has been very vocal in wanting to address the myriad of problems associated with an incompetent government, which lies at the root of the asylum crisis, a climate policy, the child benefit scandal,and the nitrogen crisis.
At minimum, Omtzigt is expected to be kingmaker following next Wednesday’s elections.
Omtzigt has publicly rejected any cooperation with Geert Wilders’ nationalist PVV (currently polling at 20%) and the “Nexit” propagating Forum for Democracy (FvD), which trails far behind at 4%.
In this, he would go against the wishes of a near-majority of Dutch voters, however, which, according to a recent survey, would prefer a conservative coalition government to include Geert Wilders’ PVV.
Omtzigt is, however, considering a center-right minority cabinet which, along with his own party, would be composed of the VVD, his own former party CDA, the BBB, the conservative Calvinist Reformed Political Party (SGP), as well as the conservative-liberal JA21.
Given his popularity and his party’s momentum, Omtzigt stands a good chance of beating the VVD’s Minister of Justice and Safety Dilan Yeşilgöz as well as the PvdA-GL’s Frans Timmermans to become the country’s next PM.
Whether he would actually see himself in that role, Omtzigt, for the moment, and perhaps wisely, keeps schtum about.
