The Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant, one of the country’s leading publications, devoted its front page story on Saturday, November 9th to claiming in large print—and framed by an even larger menacing photo of Donald Trump—that “This is the New World Order: It will be Lonely for European Democracies”. The piece went on to state that Trump’s election is a boon for autocrats worldwide, whilst pointing out that the president-elect is apparently aiming for “a weak and divided Europe.”
This is quite a mouthful of far-reaching claims for a major newspaper that pretends to offer objective journalism. In fact, since November 5th, thanks to the dignified statesmanship of President Joe Biden after his party resoundingly lost the democratic and peaceful election, we have witnessed a return to the important American tradition—ignored by Trump in November 2020—for the president-elect to be invited by the outgoing president for a chat in the Oval Office. A tradition that publicly gets the orderly and democratic transfer of power into motion.
Whether autocrats the world over are going to be happy about the Trump election remains to be seen: Iran in any case is nervous enough to find it necessary to be backchanneling olive branches to the incoming team in Washington. The claim that the new president is hoping for a weak and divided Europe lacks evidence and illustrates something much more important that many seem to forget: Europe itself, not the United States, is responsible for being united and strong.
De Volkskrant is a telling product of how Europe is sleepwalking into further decline by its established media and political leaders being completely out of touch with what has been so visibly brewing amongst large parts of Western populations on both sides of the Atlantic. They are also failing to rightly interpret and respond to the epochal changes that have been taking place on the world stage already long before this US election cycle.
Trump entering the White House is only supercharging this change, where the new ‘leader of the free world’ and his team will be acting under the motto “escalate to de-escalate” and causing plenty of disruption inside and outside of the United States. Hundreds of executive orders have already been written and will be signed the moment the new president returns to the Oval Office after his inauguration on January 20th, 2025. This time Trump seems to be well-prepared and focussed on rapidly executing a comprehensive plan.
How quickly things are changing since November 5th can be witnessed all around. For example, we suddenly find the German Chancellor speaking at length to the Russian president for the first time in two years, followed by an obvious debriefing of Trump by Scholz, whilst President Zelensky of Ukraine, although protesting the Berlin-Moscow call, feels the need to subsequently officially announce a desired end to the war in 2025 “by diplomatic means.” Not long ago this would have been unimaginable, even forbidden, talk in European capitals, especially in Brussels.
Europe’s failure to be ready for another Trump presidency is to a large extent caused by a moralising and therefore blinding ideological stance of most of its media and political leaders toward anyone, including very large parts of their own electorates, who does not adhere to the political orthodoxy of the day. Many refuse to entertain the idea that they might have gotten it wrong on important issues and that the insights, opinions and concerns of those outside of their own bubble are deserving of attention, respect and dialogue.
We do this at our own peril, considering the dangerously weak state in which Europe finds itself today, in a critically restless global conflagration where not only economic turmoil but also the sliding into a full-scale Third World War are real risks.
The opinion of us Europeans, moreover, on what has just transpired electorally in the United States, is wholly irrelevant, as President Macron of France rightly pointed out in a speech he gave at a recent meeting of political leaders in Budapest. Neither the current nor the future U.S. administration is going to spend much time fretting about what any major European newspaper or political leader thinks about the election of Donald Trump and his cabinet appointments, however controversial some may be.
Europe and its leaders, on the other hand, will have to prioritize with great urgency efforts to get their own house in order and, as a matter of absolute priority, to build a constructive working relationship with the new leadership team that is taking shape in Washington. This is, of course, only if Europe does not want to continue its ongoing economic, military and political decline in the face of the now rapidly intensifying geo-political realignment.
This is a realignment unseen since the end of the Cold War. The United States under a second Trump administration will not hesitate to do whatever it deems necessary to retain its position as the world’s sole remaining superpower, whilst China, aided by a group of mostly rogue states, will do everything in its power to challenge Washington and weaken and divide the Western alliance, especially Europe.
Without a clear common strategy to be implemented as soon as possible, the EU risks getting stuck in the middle—used as a playground whenever convenient for either or both competing sides—because it has failed to get its act together in time on three major fronts: energy independence, economic resilience, and military strength. EU soft power is no longer a leading factor in the current situation.
If Europe wants to have a peaceful and prosperous future, it will need to live up to its enormous potential and untapped power by overcoming the manifold self-imposed (ideological) obstacles. These include, amongst others, the energy, economic and military sectors, whilst building a robust communication with the new American administration.
If Europe treads wisely and discards its tendency to claim the moral high ground while getting distracted by false priorities demanded by loud ideologues, there is a real chance that at least the EU, if not the whole of the European continent, may even benefit from the new wind that will be blowing out of Washington.
Also under Trump, America will continue to regard Europe as important enough that it is willing to cooperate and find mutually beneficial solutions, provided the Europeans are willing to step up to take full responsibility whilst ending their lethargy.
Despite enough economic enticements and sweetened deals providing easy money, nobody with a grip on the raw facts and in positions of responsibility can seriously believe that Communist and authoritarian China with its fundamentally different culture and lack of freedom can or will be the reliable political and economic partner that the EU needs for a stable future—especially in terms of its energy supplies, economic prospects and military sovereignty. Hence, despite the U.S.’s manifold problems and deficiencies of its own, its continuing partnership is the only real option for a Europe that loves its freedom and democracy.
Energy independence
The sick man of Europe, Germany, once its undisputed economic engine, is a perfect example of ideologically inspired self-destruction by means of cutting off the free flow of energy that is simply a necessity to retain an industry-based economy. First, it was the permanent rejection of nuclear energy, then the economically unsustainable rapid ‘green energy transition’ (‘Energiewende’) pushed to the extreme by the now defunct traffic light coalition (that curiously collapsed the day after the U.S. elections), followed by the Ukraine war and the closure of the Nord Stream pipeline.
Germany, against better judgment dependent for far too long on Russian gas, was not able to quickly enough tap into alternative energy resources to protect the industrial base of its economy against the fallout. The recent downturn of Volkswagen, unheard of in its highly successful history, is a perfect illustration of the short-sightedness of Europe’s intertwined energy and climate policies. As a result, Germany, and thus the EU, are in for major trouble.
In the meantime, according to The Economist, the United States has since 2019 grown into becoming the world’s largest producer of crude oil and natural gas – whilst parallel large-scale creation of ‘green’ energy production is ongoing – and thus has also achieved its strategically vital national energy independence, especially important in the current volatile geopolitical climate with the Middle East in flames and the African continent witnessing ever more destabilising wars and conflicts in various major countries such as Sudan, Congo, Kenya and Nigeria.
Most of Europe, meanwhile, having had to wean itself from dependence on Russian gas, is now fully dependent on especially the United States (50% of the EU’s LNG), but also undemocratic countries such as Qatar and Algeria to meet its energy needs. On 16 November, Austria, one of the remaining European Gazprom customers, felt how dependency on Russian gas continues to be a risk: its deliveries were suddenly cut off.
Unless Europe rapidly further develops its own green and fossil energy sources that are also economically sustainable (!), which is unlikely to happen anytime soon, it will very much need the United States and its expensive energy deliveries for the foreseeable future. Thus, good relations are key, and one wonders why droves of EU and member state delegations are not already showing up in Washington and Mar-a-Lago to meet with the Trump transition team for ongoing energy supply negotiations.
Economic resilience
Due to many interplaying factors, including overregulation, high payroll taxes and a lack of innovation, Europe is falling far behind the United States in economic terms where the U.S. is the EU’s largest trading partner responsible for 16% of all EU exports. According to The Economist’s October 14th, 2024 edition, “America has outperformed its peers among the mature economies. In 1990 America accounted for about two-fifths of the overall GDP of the G7 group of advanced countries; today it is up to about half … On a per-person basis, American economic output is now about 40% higher than in Western Europe and Canada.” And: “America’s real growth has been 10%, three times the average for the rest of the G7 countries.”
The United States is still the world’s biggest economy by far, with China only making 65% of the U.S.’s GDP, where this was still 75% in 2021. Productivity in America substantially outpaces that of other countries and regions, including Europe: economic output generated by an average American worker is $171.000, – compared to $120.000, – in Europe. The U.S. has seen a 70% increase in labour productivity since 1990, whereas the Europeans have lagged with 29%.
America is also by far the largest spender on R&D, with around 3.5% of GDP. These are hefty figures and should give Europeans pause for modesty and swift action. The combination of the new Trump administration considering 10-20% universal import tariffs also on European goods and the resulting looming trade wars, as well as the increasing tensions between the U.S. and China surely affecting Europe, will likely lead to the EU and European nations having to choose soon on whose side they stand. Building a good working relationship with the new U.S. administration should therefore be a priority, starting with negotiating an EU exemption on import tariffs.
Military strength
Three recent developments should have every European political leader lay awake at night: North Korean troops that are now fighting on the side of Russia on European soil, the Ukrainian president and his military openly discussing the possibility to start producing nuclear weapons to defend itself, and aides to President-Elect Trump presenting a possible peace plan (from which the transition team later distanced itself) to end the Russia-Ukraine war that would freeze the conflict and require European troops to man a demilitarized buffer zone in Eastern Ukraine, with the Americans already clearly indicating that they will not be fielding troops themselves for such a mission, other than for training purposes.
Whether or not this plan has any chance of success is beside the point: with this message today’s America has just informed Europe that without massive increases in its military capabilities and willingness to engage and share the burden with the Americans (the NATO 2% defence spending norm is about to go up to 2,5 or 3%), Washington will not be ready to do more than it already does on the continent defending it against Russia. Instead of the immediate moral indignation that usually follows such statements from Trump or his aides, European leaders would do good to consider how they can take substantially more responsibility and pride in defending their own countries, cultures and peoples.
In the meantime, to prove this point, despite the truly heroic effort of the Ukrainian army ever since the Russian invasion, Ukraine is now increasingly losing momentum and territory. The EU, initially strong and united in its military support of Ukraine, has always lacked a comprehensive and long-term political and military strategy to deal with Russia’s aggression, whilst for the United States, despite its continued large-scale delivery of weapons to the country, Ukraine’s full territorial integrity has never seemed to be a real priority (the US also did not intervene when the Crimea was taken over by Russia’s “green men” in 2014). Under the new U.S. president this will possibly be even less so, as for example the BBC recently reported.
Furthermore, Western governments are not going to send troops into Ukraine. An opponent the size of Russia that is willing to accept any number of casualties amongst its own soldiers whilst fighting a war of attrition without end and in constant violation of the Geneva convention is almost impossible to defeat through conventional warfare. The perspective for Europe, therefore, is bleak. Although this still seems to be a tabu in Brussels, the much-proclaimed mantra that the EU will stand by Ukraine until Russia is defeated now sounds hollow and even reckless. There is no actionable plan, neither seems there to have ever been one. Ukrainians are paying the price whilst the rest of Europe looks on.
The belated drive by most European governments to strengthen their armed forces in the face of the Russian aggression and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has been too little too late to enable Europe in the foreseeable future to defend itself without robust American help. Even if an end to the Ukraine war could be achieved, nobody should have the illusion that Putin will be done with his military pursuits and hybrid warfare. History is littered with examples of dictators of his calibre that will never stop in their lifetimes, not even with a peace deal in place. Just think of the Munich conference of 1938.
Furthermore, the current larger geopolitical reality puts Europe in a very weak spot: should for example China decide to invade Taiwan, the U.S. would have to engage substantial military resources in Asia, even more so when Pyongyang uses the situation to cause conflict or war on the Korean peninsula. This could then mean that U.S. troop presence in Europe would likely be negatively affected, leaving Europe to have to fend even more for itself.
The perspectives for military escalation in the Middle East are no better. The Germans, as Europe’s leading nation, have been specifically sloppy in keeping their military in order, whilst the Polish, knowing the harsh historical reality of invading armies coming from East and West, have been consistently investing in their defence capabilities for at least the past decade. Poland is thus showing the rest of Europe what is possible with the right priorities and political will.
As a result, Poland now seems to be the preferred military partner of the United States in Europe, with amongst others recently a NATO missile defence base opened in Poland. Also here, European nations and the EU better work hard for good relations and cooperation with the new US administration, if they do not want to be a passive bystander when the political and military fate of Europe is being decided.
Abandon the moral high ground
Not only mainstream media such as De Volkskrant, but even more so Europe’s government leaders, regardless of their political affiliation, need to realize that they are geopolitically in for a wild ride now that Donald Trump has once more been elected president of the United States with also majorities in both houses of Congress. All indicators are that he will be true to his word and that he will take swift action – mostly through executive orders – on the issues that concern a majority of American voters, whether Europe and its leaders like this or not.
Domestically, Trump will not only tackle illegal immigration in unorthodox ways, in economic policy terms import tariffs and trade wars can be expected and the geopolitical realignment that has already started much longer ago with the rise of China, is now being fast-tracked with very serious consequences for Europe in terms of energy, economy and military realities. The time is far overdue to act.
European leaders would be well-advised to get their own house in order instead of lecturing Americans on what is democracy and the rule of law. Rather, the EU and European nations should be rapidly getting on good terms with the new leadership in the White House and on Capitol Hill to still be able to influence the outcome of what will surely be the greatest geopolitical contest and upheaval of our time, resulting in a new world order. This new world order may or may not include Europe as a major player, depending on its willingness to once again take full responsibility for its own fate.
This article was previously published on LinkedIn and is republished here with kind permission.
Is Europe Sleepwalking Into Irrelevance?
Photo: AramilFeraxa, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
The Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant, one of the country’s leading publications, devoted its front page story on Saturday, November 9th to claiming in large print—and framed by an even larger menacing photo of Donald Trump—that “This is the New World Order: It will be Lonely for European Democracies”. The piece went on to state that Trump’s election is a boon for autocrats worldwide, whilst pointing out that the president-elect is apparently aiming for “a weak and divided Europe.”
This is quite a mouthful of far-reaching claims for a major newspaper that pretends to offer objective journalism. In fact, since November 5th, thanks to the dignified statesmanship of President Joe Biden after his party resoundingly lost the democratic and peaceful election, we have witnessed a return to the important American tradition—ignored by Trump in November 2020—for the president-elect to be invited by the outgoing president for a chat in the Oval Office. A tradition that publicly gets the orderly and democratic transfer of power into motion.
Whether autocrats the world over are going to be happy about the Trump election remains to be seen: Iran in any case is nervous enough to find it necessary to be backchanneling olive branches to the incoming team in Washington. The claim that the new president is hoping for a weak and divided Europe lacks evidence and illustrates something much more important that many seem to forget: Europe itself, not the United States, is responsible for being united and strong.
De Volkskrant is a telling product of how Europe is sleepwalking into further decline by its established media and political leaders being completely out of touch with what has been so visibly brewing amongst large parts of Western populations on both sides of the Atlantic. They are also failing to rightly interpret and respond to the epochal changes that have been taking place on the world stage already long before this US election cycle.
Trump entering the White House is only supercharging this change, where the new ‘leader of the free world’ and his team will be acting under the motto “escalate to de-escalate” and causing plenty of disruption inside and outside of the United States. Hundreds of executive orders have already been written and will be signed the moment the new president returns to the Oval Office after his inauguration on January 20th, 2025. This time Trump seems to be well-prepared and focussed on rapidly executing a comprehensive plan.
How quickly things are changing since November 5th can be witnessed all around. For example, we suddenly find the German Chancellor speaking at length to the Russian president for the first time in two years, followed by an obvious debriefing of Trump by Scholz, whilst President Zelensky of Ukraine, although protesting the Berlin-Moscow call, feels the need to subsequently officially announce a desired end to the war in 2025 “by diplomatic means.” Not long ago this would have been unimaginable, even forbidden, talk in European capitals, especially in Brussels.
Europe’s failure to be ready for another Trump presidency is to a large extent caused by a moralising and therefore blinding ideological stance of most of its media and political leaders toward anyone, including very large parts of their own electorates, who does not adhere to the political orthodoxy of the day. Many refuse to entertain the idea that they might have gotten it wrong on important issues and that the insights, opinions and concerns of those outside of their own bubble are deserving of attention, respect and dialogue.
We do this at our own peril, considering the dangerously weak state in which Europe finds itself today, in a critically restless global conflagration where not only economic turmoil but also the sliding into a full-scale Third World War are real risks.
The opinion of us Europeans, moreover, on what has just transpired electorally in the United States, is wholly irrelevant, as President Macron of France rightly pointed out in a speech he gave at a recent meeting of political leaders in Budapest. Neither the current nor the future U.S. administration is going to spend much time fretting about what any major European newspaper or political leader thinks about the election of Donald Trump and his cabinet appointments, however controversial some may be.
Europe and its leaders, on the other hand, will have to prioritize with great urgency efforts to get their own house in order and, as a matter of absolute priority, to build a constructive working relationship with the new leadership team that is taking shape in Washington. This is, of course, only if Europe does not want to continue its ongoing economic, military and political decline in the face of the now rapidly intensifying geo-political realignment.
This is a realignment unseen since the end of the Cold War. The United States under a second Trump administration will not hesitate to do whatever it deems necessary to retain its position as the world’s sole remaining superpower, whilst China, aided by a group of mostly rogue states, will do everything in its power to challenge Washington and weaken and divide the Western alliance, especially Europe.
Without a clear common strategy to be implemented as soon as possible, the EU risks getting stuck in the middle—used as a playground whenever convenient for either or both competing sides—because it has failed to get its act together in time on three major fronts: energy independence, economic resilience, and military strength. EU soft power is no longer a leading factor in the current situation.
If Europe wants to have a peaceful and prosperous future, it will need to live up to its enormous potential and untapped power by overcoming the manifold self-imposed (ideological) obstacles. These include, amongst others, the energy, economic and military sectors, whilst building a robust communication with the new American administration.
If Europe treads wisely and discards its tendency to claim the moral high ground while getting distracted by false priorities demanded by loud ideologues, there is a real chance that at least the EU, if not the whole of the European continent, may even benefit from the new wind that will be blowing out of Washington.
Also under Trump, America will continue to regard Europe as important enough that it is willing to cooperate and find mutually beneficial solutions, provided the Europeans are willing to step up to take full responsibility whilst ending their lethargy.
Despite enough economic enticements and sweetened deals providing easy money, nobody with a grip on the raw facts and in positions of responsibility can seriously believe that Communist and authoritarian China with its fundamentally different culture and lack of freedom can or will be the reliable political and economic partner that the EU needs for a stable future—especially in terms of its energy supplies, economic prospects and military sovereignty. Hence, despite the U.S.’s manifold problems and deficiencies of its own, its continuing partnership is the only real option for a Europe that loves its freedom and democracy.
Energy independence
The sick man of Europe, Germany, once its undisputed economic engine, is a perfect example of ideologically inspired self-destruction by means of cutting off the free flow of energy that is simply a necessity to retain an industry-based economy. First, it was the permanent rejection of nuclear energy, then the economically unsustainable rapid ‘green energy transition’ (‘Energiewende’) pushed to the extreme by the now defunct traffic light coalition (that curiously collapsed the day after the U.S. elections), followed by the Ukraine war and the closure of the Nord Stream pipeline.
Germany, against better judgment dependent for far too long on Russian gas, was not able to quickly enough tap into alternative energy resources to protect the industrial base of its economy against the fallout. The recent downturn of Volkswagen, unheard of in its highly successful history, is a perfect illustration of the short-sightedness of Europe’s intertwined energy and climate policies. As a result, Germany, and thus the EU, are in for major trouble.
In the meantime, according to The Economist, the United States has since 2019 grown into becoming the world’s largest producer of crude oil and natural gas – whilst parallel large-scale creation of ‘green’ energy production is ongoing – and thus has also achieved its strategically vital national energy independence, especially important in the current volatile geopolitical climate with the Middle East in flames and the African continent witnessing ever more destabilising wars and conflicts in various major countries such as Sudan, Congo, Kenya and Nigeria.
Most of Europe, meanwhile, having had to wean itself from dependence on Russian gas, is now fully dependent on especially the United States (50% of the EU’s LNG), but also undemocratic countries such as Qatar and Algeria to meet its energy needs. On 16 November, Austria, one of the remaining European Gazprom customers, felt how dependency on Russian gas continues to be a risk: its deliveries were suddenly cut off.
Unless Europe rapidly further develops its own green and fossil energy sources that are also economically sustainable (!), which is unlikely to happen anytime soon, it will very much need the United States and its expensive energy deliveries for the foreseeable future. Thus, good relations are key, and one wonders why droves of EU and member state delegations are not already showing up in Washington and Mar-a-Lago to meet with the Trump transition team for ongoing energy supply negotiations.
Economic resilience
Due to many interplaying factors, including overregulation, high payroll taxes and a lack of innovation, Europe is falling far behind the United States in economic terms where the U.S. is the EU’s largest trading partner responsible for 16% of all EU exports. According to The Economist’s October 14th, 2024 edition, “America has outperformed its peers among the mature economies. In 1990 America accounted for about two-fifths of the overall GDP of the G7 group of advanced countries; today it is up to about half … On a per-person basis, American economic output is now about 40% higher than in Western Europe and Canada.” And: “America’s real growth has been 10%, three times the average for the rest of the G7 countries.”
The United States is still the world’s biggest economy by far, with China only making 65% of the U.S.’s GDP, where this was still 75% in 2021. Productivity in America substantially outpaces that of other countries and regions, including Europe: economic output generated by an average American worker is $171.000, – compared to $120.000, – in Europe. The U.S. has seen a 70% increase in labour productivity since 1990, whereas the Europeans have lagged with 29%.
America is also by far the largest spender on R&D, with around 3.5% of GDP. These are hefty figures and should give Europeans pause for modesty and swift action. The combination of the new Trump administration considering 10-20% universal import tariffs also on European goods and the resulting looming trade wars, as well as the increasing tensions between the U.S. and China surely affecting Europe, will likely lead to the EU and European nations having to choose soon on whose side they stand. Building a good working relationship with the new U.S. administration should therefore be a priority, starting with negotiating an EU exemption on import tariffs.
Military strength
Three recent developments should have every European political leader lay awake at night: North Korean troops that are now fighting on the side of Russia on European soil, the Ukrainian president and his military openly discussing the possibility to start producing nuclear weapons to defend itself, and aides to President-Elect Trump presenting a possible peace plan (from which the transition team later distanced itself) to end the Russia-Ukraine war that would freeze the conflict and require European troops to man a demilitarized buffer zone in Eastern Ukraine, with the Americans already clearly indicating that they will not be fielding troops themselves for such a mission, other than for training purposes.
Whether or not this plan has any chance of success is beside the point: with this message today’s America has just informed Europe that without massive increases in its military capabilities and willingness to engage and share the burden with the Americans (the NATO 2% defence spending norm is about to go up to 2,5 or 3%), Washington will not be ready to do more than it already does on the continent defending it against Russia. Instead of the immediate moral indignation that usually follows such statements from Trump or his aides, European leaders would do good to consider how they can take substantially more responsibility and pride in defending their own countries, cultures and peoples.
In the meantime, to prove this point, despite the truly heroic effort of the Ukrainian army ever since the Russian invasion, Ukraine is now increasingly losing momentum and territory. The EU, initially strong and united in its military support of Ukraine, has always lacked a comprehensive and long-term political and military strategy to deal with Russia’s aggression, whilst for the United States, despite its continued large-scale delivery of weapons to the country, Ukraine’s full territorial integrity has never seemed to be a real priority (the US also did not intervene when the Crimea was taken over by Russia’s “green men” in 2014). Under the new U.S. president this will possibly be even less so, as for example the BBC recently reported.
Furthermore, Western governments are not going to send troops into Ukraine. An opponent the size of Russia that is willing to accept any number of casualties amongst its own soldiers whilst fighting a war of attrition without end and in constant violation of the Geneva convention is almost impossible to defeat through conventional warfare. The perspective for Europe, therefore, is bleak. Although this still seems to be a tabu in Brussels, the much-proclaimed mantra that the EU will stand by Ukraine until Russia is defeated now sounds hollow and even reckless. There is no actionable plan, neither seems there to have ever been one. Ukrainians are paying the price whilst the rest of Europe looks on.
The belated drive by most European governments to strengthen their armed forces in the face of the Russian aggression and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has been too little too late to enable Europe in the foreseeable future to defend itself without robust American help. Even if an end to the Ukraine war could be achieved, nobody should have the illusion that Putin will be done with his military pursuits and hybrid warfare. History is littered with examples of dictators of his calibre that will never stop in their lifetimes, not even with a peace deal in place. Just think of the Munich conference of 1938.
Furthermore, the current larger geopolitical reality puts Europe in a very weak spot: should for example China decide to invade Taiwan, the U.S. would have to engage substantial military resources in Asia, even more so when Pyongyang uses the situation to cause conflict or war on the Korean peninsula. This could then mean that U.S. troop presence in Europe would likely be negatively affected, leaving Europe to have to fend even more for itself.
The perspectives for military escalation in the Middle East are no better. The Germans, as Europe’s leading nation, have been specifically sloppy in keeping their military in order, whilst the Polish, knowing the harsh historical reality of invading armies coming from East and West, have been consistently investing in their defence capabilities for at least the past decade. Poland is thus showing the rest of Europe what is possible with the right priorities and political will.
As a result, Poland now seems to be the preferred military partner of the United States in Europe, with amongst others recently a NATO missile defence base opened in Poland. Also here, European nations and the EU better work hard for good relations and cooperation with the new US administration, if they do not want to be a passive bystander when the political and military fate of Europe is being decided.
Abandon the moral high ground
Not only mainstream media such as De Volkskrant, but even more so Europe’s government leaders, regardless of their political affiliation, need to realize that they are geopolitically in for a wild ride now that Donald Trump has once more been elected president of the United States with also majorities in both houses of Congress. All indicators are that he will be true to his word and that he will take swift action – mostly through executive orders – on the issues that concern a majority of American voters, whether Europe and its leaders like this or not.
Domestically, Trump will not only tackle illegal immigration in unorthodox ways, in economic policy terms import tariffs and trade wars can be expected and the geopolitical realignment that has already started much longer ago with the rise of China, is now being fast-tracked with very serious consequences for Europe in terms of energy, economy and military realities. The time is far overdue to act.
European leaders would be well-advised to get their own house in order instead of lecturing Americans on what is democracy and the rule of law. Rather, the EU and European nations should be rapidly getting on good terms with the new leadership in the White House and on Capitol Hill to still be able to influence the outcome of what will surely be the greatest geopolitical contest and upheaval of our time, resulting in a new world order. This new world order may or may not include Europe as a major player, depending on its willingness to once again take full responsibility for its own fate.
This article was previously published on LinkedIn and is republished here with kind permission.
READ NEXT
Why the Battle Over Hungary’s Child Protection Law Matters for Europe
Bonhoeffer’s Legacy
Swiss Referendum on Eurovision Song Contest: Disunited by Music?