The French governmental right-wing party Les Républicains is about to get a new president. Elections are due to be held in early December, and the debates are raging because much is at stake. Beyond the election for party leadership is the entire strategy of a party that must be defined over the next few years—keeping the next presidential elections (2027) in mind. The dilemma facing Les Républicains amounts to whether it will assume a right-wing ideological line or choose the voice of centrism inspired by Emmanuel Macron?
Three candidates are in the running: Bruno Retailleau, leader of the group of Senators Les Républicains; Éric Ciotti, Valérie Pécresse’s rival at the time of the primary to designate the presidential candidate last spring; and an outsider, the young deputy of the lot, Aurélien Pradié, who is not expected to obtain a significant score given his lack of visibility. The duel is thus between Bruno Retailleau and Éric Ciotti.
As right-leaning candidates, they share a common, vigorous rejection of any prospect of an alliance with Renaissance, Emmanuel Macron’s party, even though historical personalities of the party, such as former President Nicolas Sarkozy, are ostensibly pushing in this direction. Retailleau and Ciotti both know that a rapprochement with Emmanuel Macron would soon bring about the death of the Les Républicains party, and stifle a useful voice within the presidential majority.
Bruno Retailleau justified his candidacy in the absence of Laurent Wauquiez in the race. The president of the second region of France, the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, from his stronghold in Lyon, was a ‘natural candidate’ for the party. But he preferred to reserve himself for other battles: he is no doubt thinking of running for president in 2027 and does not want to drown before time in the internal quarrels of his camp. Retailleau has explained that he wants to run to support the probable candidacy of Wauquiez in 2027.
Éric Ciotti does not hold a different speech. He too intends to support Laurent Wauquiez when the time comes. He has a head start on Bruno Retailleau because he created a surprise at the time of the Republican primary during the presidential elections, coming out on top of the vote of the militants, before being beaten in the second round by Valérie Pécresse.
The real question is: which candidate, and for which political line? Les Républicains are caught in a dangerous trap, between Macronism and the Rassemblement National, which has established itself as the leading parliamentary group on the Right. For the moment, the two candidates seem to have chosen as their watchword: ‘all right,’ in a clever mix of conviction and opportunism. The recent scandal of the reception of the migrant boat Ocean Viking has given Les Républicains the opportunity to make a very firm statement on immigration. Bruno Retailleau condemned the “moral lessons” given to Italy and defended the position of Giorgia Meloni. He said he wanted to wage war on smugglers and thought that migrants should have been escorted back to Libya or Syria. The same was echoed by Éric Ciotti, who blamed “a very heavy fault of the government.”
On this issue, they know they can count on the support of public opinion. But they joined the chorus of the Left and the Center when the RN deputy Grégoire de Fournas was attacked for alleged racist remarks: taking the defense of the party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen would have put their reputations at risk. But their silence on the matter was not well received, and instead interpreted as coldness and capitulation to political correctness.
Bruno Retailleau has chosen as his slogan ‘A new party for a true Right.’ He benefits from the support of the younger members of the party, well known for their conservative positioning, like François-Xavier Bellamy or Julien Aubert. Retailleau chooses to speak out on symbolic issues that appeal to conservative sympathies, such as the defense of Christian Armenia against Azerbaijan, or the condemnation of euthanasia. But some people have not forgiven him for his procrastination in defending freedoms at the time of the COVID pandemic—he voted for all the government’s sanitary measures—and reproach him with an indecisive Europeanism that makes him not very credible with respect to the indispensable defense of French sovereignty.
With his result in the primaries, Éric Ciotti is the favorite. He is unassuming with his southern accent and straight talk, and has developed the catchy slogan, ‘The Right at heart,’ and a triptych for his platform, ‘authority, identity, freedom.’ He calls for firmness on migration and asks for the implementation of uniforms for all schools. He has the support of the Young Republicans, who appreciate his uncompromising tone. During the presidential campaign, he explained that he personally preferred a Zemmour vote to a Macron vote, which immediately classified him as ‘unacceptable’ to the Left. But he is entering a legal turmoil by timely revelations by the satirical newspaper Le Canard enchaîné published on November 16th, explaining that he has repeatedly hired his wife for fictitious jobs, like François Fillon, presidential candidate in 2017, who was discredited by such affairs.
The December election will reveal whether or not the militants are impressed by this court case published at such a decisive moment. In the meantime, the Républicains give the impression that they want, at least in their discourse, to give life to a right-wing identity. The problem is that this right-wing identity struggles to be embodied in genuinely divisive positions and in votes. Will the recurrent use of conservative keywords, which are supposed to trigger a reflex of adhesion among a base that is generally more right-wing than its cadres, be enough to mobilize a resigned right-wing electorate that is now reluctant to trust a political force that has already betrayed so much?
