Polish Liberals in Mourning: From Certain Victory to Crushing Defeat

The earliest results showed a narrow victory for Karol Nawrocki’s rival, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, but conservatives remained calm. Jarosław Kaczyński, head of the conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS), confidently declared that the night’s counting would turn the tide. He was quickly proven right. By midnight, Trzaskowski’s small advantage evaporated, and the final count gave Nawrocki the win with 50.89% of the vote, compared to Trzaskowski’s 49.11%.

How did this happen? With President Andrzej Duda completing his second term in August 2025, a liberal coalition—including Civic Platform (establishment liberals), The Left (socialists and progressives), and Third Way (Christian Democrats)—appeared ready to consolidate power after their parliamentary victory in late 2023. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, lauded by Western media as a champion against populism, seemed poised to usher Poland into a new era of liberal consensus. With his name recognition and parliamentary momentum, Trzaskowski entered the race as the clear favorite. While there were internal tensions within the ruling coalition and rising discontent over Tusk’s first year in government, early polls showed no serious threats to Trzaskowski’s path to the presidency.

Karol Nawrocki, however, was seen as a longshot. As a historian and head of the Institute of National Remembrance, with no political experience and humble origins all too similar to those of JD Vance, Nawrocki initially struggled to connect with voters. His stiff demeanor and lack of political polish led many analysts to question whether he was presidential material. Yet, this was part of a deliberate strategy by Kaczyński, who hoped to repeat the 2015 success when the little-known Andrzej Duda defeated an overconfident Civic Platform incumbent.

At the same time, PiS faced significant obstacles. Public funding was withheld despite Supreme Court rulings ordering its release, further contributing to Poland’s ongoing constitutional crisis. Regulatory action also targeted conservative private media. 

Despite these hurdles, the presidential race turned into one of the most unpredictable and fascinating in Poland’s modern history, filled with surprises, shifting alliances, and chaotic debates. The first signs of change came in early 2025, as anti-establishment candidates surged in the polls, becoming key players in the race.

Sławomir Mentzen, representing the nationalist and pro-capitalist Konfederacja party, gained significant traction, especially among young voters. His nationwide tour of all 314 Polish counties energized anti-establishment sentiment and boosted his popularity even in larger cities. Mentzen’s rise prompted Trzaskowski to face a tough decision: try to appeal to Mentzen’s supporters through rhetorical shifts, or openly oppose them with policies on hate speech and EU leniency. Trzaskowski chose the latter, alienating a portion of the electorate. Mentzen finished the first round with over 15% of the vote, a strong third-place showing.

Meanwhile, the media landscape underwent a transformation with the rapid rise of Kanał Zero, an online platform founded by former sports journalist Krzysztof Stanowski. The platform offered long-form interviews and commentary, drawing comparisons to Joe Rogan’s influence in the US. Stanowski even entered the race himself, part candidate, part commentator, part satirist, consistently portraying Trzaskowski as a symbol of an out-of-touch elite.

Adrian Zandberg, a socialist from the party Razem, also gained momentum after his party left the ruling coalition over ideological differences. Zandberg’s rise came at the expense of Magdalena Biejat, the liberal-left candidate, who secured only 4.23% in the first round. Biejat quickly urged her supporters to vote for Trzaskowski, but Zandberg declined to support any candidate, positioning himself as the anti-establishment left’s champion.

The most surprising electoral dark horse was Grzegorz Braun, a right-wing dissident from Konfederacja. Known for his anti-Ukrainian, anti-EU, and anti-progressive views, Braun attracted a vocal anti-establishment base and surprised many by winning 6.34% of the vote. His success was particularly notable in conservative regions of the country.

These outsider candidates shared a common critique of Trzaskowski, who was seen as the embodiment of a complacent liberal establishment that lacked a compelling positive vision, and offered only the ruthless implementation of a terrifying globalist agenda.

The debate in Końskie in April 2025 marked a key turning point. Originally intended as a one-on-one event between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski, the debate quickly devolved into chaos when other candidates, arrived uninvited and demanded inclusion. The debate format unraveled as Trzaskowski struggled to maintain composure under attacks from all sides. Nawrocki delivered a symbolic blow by handing Trzaskowski an LGBT flag, accusing him of prioritizing minorities over the average Polish citizen. Trzaskowski’s clumsy reaction—hiding the flag under his podium only to have it retrieved by Biejat, who declared she was “not ashamed” of it—alienated some progressive voters.

The fallout was severe. Polls tightened, and Trzaskowski’s once unassailable lead vanished. Legal experts also questioned whether the debate violated broadcasting regulations, given the involvement of state media. Trzaskowski’s fatigue and declining popularity became apparent in the weeks that followed.

The campaign also faced accusations of interference from foreign-funded NGO campaigns supporting Trzaskowski. These organizations attacked right-wing candidates like Nawrocki and Mentzen, attempting to sway moderate voters away from them. Bottom-up investigations revealed evidence of coordination between Trzaskowski’s camp and these external initiatives, further damaging his credibility.

In contrast, Nawrocki’s campaign gained strength as his debate performances improved, and he secured key endorsements from Andrzej Duda, and even Donald Trump, with a surprise visit to the White House in early May. 

The greatest challenge was about to hit just after that, as he was hit by a smear campaign of unprecedented proportions. First, media accused him of extorting an apartment from an elderly neighbor years ago. Although Nawrocki’s legal team provided explanations, the scandal temporarily hurt his momentum.

As the race entered its final days, the libels continued, with allegations linking Nawrocki to supposed past criminal activity, including being a football hooligan and even a crime lord. Most serious accusations leveraged against Nawrocki were, however, based on anonymous sources, and despite the intense media mobilization, they failed to shift the electorate’s opinion significantly.

Prime Minister Tusk, desperate to stop Nawrocki, even made a hysterical appearance in the media, repeating unfounded accusations and invoking a dubious witness. However, this only contributed to the growing sense that the liberal establishment’s attempts to discredit Nawrocki were backfiring.

By the final days of the campaign, nearly every conservative leader, from PiS to Konfederacja, explicitly or implicitly endorsed Nawrocki. He signed program agreements with Mentzen and the non-partisan, pro-infrastructure movement “Tak Dla CPK”, positioning himself as the candidate of positive change both in terms of national identity and infrastructural development of the country. Publicly backed by his family, including his wife and adopted (already adult) son, Nawrocki, in the end, managed to position himself against the negative rhetoric of the liberals, successfully writing the final act of this high-stakes, high-drama campaign.  

The results of the election were nothing short of a political earthquake. What had seemed like a certain victory for the liberal-left, which expected to dominate Polish politics after Duda’s term, turned into a crushing defeat. With Nawrocki’s victory, the liberals lost their momentum, and the coalition they had built after the 2023 parliamentary elections faces an uncertain future. There are still 2.5 years until the next parliamentary election, but with the firm authority of Donald Tusk devastated by the electoral embarrassment, the government could also collapse much earlier, torn apart by internal conflicts and possibly deserting allies.