Union of the French Right: What Are They Waiting For?

Here we are: France has a new prime minister and a new government. But for how long? None of the factors underlying the current political crisis have changed significantly, so it would be illusory to imagine that, despite these appointments, the situation could evolve favourably. And yet, the ingredients are there for an alternative scenario to unfold. A poll reveals that 52% of French people would be in favour of a government that would unite the main right-wing parties—Les Républicains (LR), the Rassemblement National (RN), and Reconquête (Zemmour’s party). This unity of the Right, dreamed of by so many voters, is not only possible but desired. So what are the leaders of these parties waiting for to make it happen?

Today, the question is not some intellectual acrobatics for political columnists in need of something to do. It is potentially the source of the solution to the deadlock in which France is dying.

By reappointing Lecornu, Macron is trying to buy time. Despite his wild denials, he is responsible for the current situation. He is reluctant to dissolve parliament because he knows full well that new elections are likely to result in a drubbing for the presidential camp and its allies. But sooner or later, he will have to do so, and that will be the moment for the union of the Right to finally prove itself.

Discontent is growing in the country, which has not been convinced by Macron’s long-running centrist experiment. The Left, allied with the far left, has discredited itself. So where can the French turn? It’s no mystery: for weeks, the RN has been climbing steadily in the polls. However, this does not guarantee that, if new elections are held, it will obtain the absolute majority it needs to govern effectively. On its own, it will find it difficult to achieve this.

In this context, a serious unknown remains: the persistence of the republican front, or the cordon sanitaire—a terrible tool invented four decades ago to prevent the national right from coming to power. During the previous legislative elections, in the summer of 2024, it proved to be extremely effective. Polls predicted a landslide victory for the RN in the elections. At the end of the first round, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party was leading the results, as it had done in the European elections on June 9th. But between the two rounds, the Republican front rallied, forming electoral alliances between the Left and the Centre to prevent the election of RN candidates who were often in a position to win.

This time, it is by no means certain that the republican front will work as well again. First, because of the reluctance of the Left, which has often sacrificed itself for the benefit of Macron’s supporters without reaping any rewards. But also because voters—let us pray for this—may finally understand that the moral pressure placed on them to dissuade them from voting for the RN is scandalous and that they must remain free to vote, free to bring to power a force that does not have the same history of betrayal as the traditional governing parties.

We can therefore see a double trend emerging with some likelihood: the RN’s progress in the polls and a weakening of the republican front. But the best way to secure victory is to reach genuine electoral agreements between the right-wing parties: LR together with the RN and its ally, the Union of the Right for the Republic (UDR), formed by those who, in the previous election, left LR to lay the foundations for the alliance of the Right.

The stakes are high. LR is losing momentum but still has a few local strongholds. By continuing to dream of the centre and refusing to cut the cord that still ties them to the Macronists, they are almost certain to face defeat, such is the resentment against the presidential camp. By reaching out to the national Right, they can hope to save their skins and take advantage of a global dynamic that may enable the Right to achieve the majority that the RN alone will struggle to obtain.

Voters have already decided in favour of this scenario, as revealed by the results of a poll conducted by the Ifop institute on behalf of the conservative weekly Valeurs Actuelles. 52% of French people are in favour of forming a ‘coalition of the right’ government. Within right-wing parties, the approval ratings are even higher: 82% of LR supporters, 88% of RN supporters and 100% of Reconquête supporters.

It remains to be seen whether the party leaderships will work seriously towards this goal, and on that front, nothing is certain. The RN, in a position of strength, believes it can win with its own troops alone, as it rightly believes that the overall dynamic is in its favour. But its image when it comes to responsibility still needs to be perfected, due to its lack of experience in national government. The question of Reconquête is not really an issue: Zemmour’s party no longer carries much weight electorally and is only included in the equation as an ideological spur. Alongside the RN is the UDR, which is champing at the bit, because this small party, led by Éric Ciotti, holds a key sector of the front: a message that resonates with businesses, authentic social conservatism, and above all, the audacity to be the first to break the cordon sanitaire. It continues to reach out to its former colleagues in the LR, who continue to snub them. A partial legislative election was held on Sunday, October 12th, in the southwest, resulting in victory for the UDR candidate. In this symbolic election, LR called for a vote “against the Left” but refused to explicitly call for support for the 35-year-old farmer presented by the UDR.

On this stage, it is undeniable that the prize for absurdity goes to the centre-right party LR. Like the former Radical Party, which enjoyed its heyday under the Third and Fourth Republics, the LR party no longer knows where it stands. It fantasises about being the voice of the Right, forgetting that it has squandered the legacy bequeathed by General de Gaulle. It longs for power and dreams of sharing the limelight with Macron’s supporters. It imagines itself to be the embodiment of both firmness and responsibility, when in fact it is merely an allegory of confusion and indecision. The latest episode was astonishing in its inconsistency: LR President Retailleau pushed Prime Minister Lecornu to the edge of the cliff on the grounds that he had chosen “only” three ministers from his party. A week later, six of them were chosen—and immediately expelled from the party with great fanfare by the very same Retailleau.

The successive missteps of Retailleau, who just a few weeks ago was presented by some overly zealous columnists as the future of the Right, if not of France, have definitively proven his lack of political sense—and honour. It is the same at the European Parliament level. A handful of LR MEPs, belonging to the EPP, supported the motion against von der Leyen proposed by the Patriots but would rather die than leave the ranks of their group to join conservative groups such as Patriots for Europe or the European Conservatives and Reformists.

At this stage, for each of the French right-wing parties, the choice of union is ultimately a matter of life and death. If the LR party persists in its refusal to work with the RN, it is doomed to die in the not too distant future. The problem is that the parties are not the only victims: France is the first to suffer.