“Babiš will be more radical in his opposition to Brussels”—Czech Analyst Roman Joch

Roman Joch is the executive director of the Czech conservative think tank the Civic Institute. We talked to him about the recent parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic and former prime minister Andrej Babiš’s victory. Babiš’ patriotic-sovereignist ANO party will likely form a government with two right-wing forces, the anti-immigration Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and the anti-Brussels Motorists for Themselves.

What were the main reasons for Andrej Babiš’s win?

The single main reason is that many people were dissatisfied with the domestic politics of Prime Minister Petr Fiala. They considered him to be distant from the needs and worries of the people—too elitist in his behaviour, too aristocratic in his demeanour. Many feared he wanted to be an important international leader while neglecting the interests of Czech citizens.

In addition, due to the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the rising prices of energy, he broke his promise not to raise taxes. As a result, people on the Left considered him too elitist and uncaring about ordinary citizens, while people on the Right saw him as too leftist because of the tax increases. Some supported him, but very few did so enthusiastically.

Andrej Babiš, on the other hand, presented himself as friendlier and more in touch with the people. He spent much of his time travelling around the country, speaking with citizens rather than sitting in parliament, and promising that he would not raise taxes but instead collect them from other sources.

The second reason was the emergence of a new party, Motorists for Themselves—a small, classical liberal or libertarian party to the right of Fiala. They were so dissatisfied with the prime minister that they decided to support Babiš. The success of this new party shifted the balance of power in parliament decisively toward Babiš.

So Fiala was too focused on international politics instead of domestic issues?

He would deny that, but that was the public perception. Most citizens felt that way.

And what were the main domestic issues that people were dissatisfied with?

The rising prices of energy and the general cost of living. Both Fiala and Babiš agree on two points: that the EU’s migration pact should be revised—we should refuse to allow the redistribution of illegal migrants—and that the European Green Deal should be reconsidered because it destroys the Czech economy. But during Fiala’s four years, inflation and energy costs were too high, and people felt he wasn’t doing enough to address them.

It also seemed that Fiala, because of his pro-EU coalition partners, wasn’t doing anything to oppose Brussels.

Exactly. Fiala’s own party, the Civic Democrats, is Eurosceptic, but his coalition partners were Euro-enthusiastic. So the government opposed almost nothing at the European level. Babiš has promised to take a tougher stance.

What will his new government’s priorities be?

He’ll be more assertive at the European level, more generous in domestic spending, and will promise to cap energy prices. He also plans to reintroduce electronic records of transactions to improve tax collection.

Do you think he’ll really be able to oppose the EU’s migration pact and Green Deal?

He’s promised that, but I’m sceptical. On the Green Deal, he might try to renegotiate aspects with Germany or other like-minded Central European countries, because the German industry knows that it’s harming them. Still, one country can’t change much alone.

But now he has allies in Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia, who are both opposed to harmful EU policies.

Yes, though that’s still not enough, and there is another complicating factor: Babiš likes to appear anti-Brussels domestically, but he also enjoys being seen with leaders like Macron and Scholz, and to be perceived by them as a good European. He’ll have to decide eventually whether he wants to be more like Orbán or stay closer to Western European leaders. He cannot play that game for too long.

But the fact that his party, ANO, last year left Emmanuel Macron’s liberal Renew group in the European Parliament, and joined forces with Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in the Patriots for Europe group must account to something, no?

Yes, it indicates a shift. I agree with that.

Another shift is that in his previous government, ANO’s coalition partners were the Social Democrats, while the Communists gave him external parliamentary support. This time around he will be governing together with two right-wing parties, both of whom are very opposed to the EU.

One of those parties, the Tomio Okamura-led SPD party even proposed a referendum on leaving the EU and NATO, but Babiš said no to that. But his coalition with two right-wing parties definitely means that he will be more radical in his opposition to Brussels than he was during his first term.

What are those coalition partners aiming for?

All three of them agree on stopping the financing of left-liberal NGOs. That’s a position they all share. But you have to understand that Babiš is, first and foremost, pragmatic. He’s not a very ideological person. He will rather follow common sense policies, which are popular among voters. So if there is a shift of opinion among voters, he will move a little bit in that direction as well.

Can we call him a populist?

In his approach toward voters, definitely yes. In his style of management, I would call him a technocrat, a pragmatic technocrat.

And what do you think the government’s stance will be on Ukraine?

He’ll keep diplomatic support but reduce financial and military aid. He may even put a stop to the Western-financed Czech munition initiative, under which Czech diplomats have secured weapons from third world countries for Ukraine. He has described the scheme as counterproductive. Diplomatically he will stay the course, but practically he will limit the Czech Republic’s efforts for the benefit of Ukraine.

Do you think he will take a more active role in international politics?

I think not. His understanding is that Czech people are more isolationist, self-centred, and don’t care too much about international affairs. He sees that Petr Fiala made a mistake by spending too much time on international issues. That backfired, voters didn’t like it.

Can we expect a stronger Central European cooperation with Orbán and Fico?

Yes, definitely. He will be friendlier than his predecessor toward both Fico and to Orbán, and move away from Fiala’s close proximity to Poland.