Arvid Hallén is the Program Director and co-founder of Oikos, Sweden’s only conservative think tank. A specialist in energy policy, he has worked as an editorial writer, a political commentator, an asset manager for foundations, and has been the chairman of the Conservative Swedish student organization Heimdal.
A radical leftist MP has described the opening of the Swedish parliament as a far-right rally. For the far Left, everything is part of the far Right, but has Swedish politics significantly changed since 2022?
It hasn’t changed since the 2022 elections. It’s from before—from 2015 and the big migration crisis that hit the whole of Europe. This was particularly dramatic in Sweden, because a large part of the migrants came to Sweden, and everyone except the radical Left understood that the situation was unsustainable. Before that, it was not even possible to say in public that immigration could cause problems, but afterwards even the centre-left government had to admit that the migration policy was not working and that the influx had to be reduced. This opened up a debate that had previously only been raised by the Sweden Democrats, and which then reached public opinion. At the same time, the problems with criminal gangs exploded and began to worsen, making it impossible to deny the obvious link between these gangs and immigration, something that had always been denied, even though the vast majority of gang members are immigrants or the children of immigrants. Since the migration crisis of 2015, the debate has shifted to the Right and criticism of immigration has become normalised in public debate, as it was in Denmark and seems to be starting to happen in Germany.
Is it this change in mentality that has made the Sweden Democrats the leading force on the Right?
I’m not sure, because the support for the Sweden Democrats came before the change in the public debate. A lot of people were angry that they couldn’t talk about this issue, and they were already voting for the Sweden Democrats. In a way, I would say that the change in the debate has reduced the party’s potential growth, because many voters who think that immigration is not going well or that crime needs to be reduced may stay with their old parties. Until 2015, the Sweden Democrats had a monopoly on criticising immigration; that monopoly has been broken.
For the first time, more immigrants have left Sweden than have arrived.
Yes, this includes voluntary re-emigration and there are some questions about the figures, but the direction is clear and it is very good.
This policy is not problematic if the return is voluntary, but is the same true for people who have been expelled for committing crimes?
The idea that criminals should be deported is not controversial in Sweden. Some members of the extreme Left have been much ridiculed because their argument against it was: ‘Why do we expel foreign criminals and not Swedish criminals?’ It doesn’t make sense. When we talk about illegal immigrants who have committed no crime other than entering the country illegally, the moderate Left does not seem to agree with expulsion, but they know that now they cannot defend it in the public debate.
The crimes committed by criminal gangs in Sweden make the news even in countries like Spain, which has a lax policy on illegal immigration. Has the situation improved since the current government took office?
Yes, that is one of the great achievements of this government. There have been many changes in the law and many more are to come. A new law is being prepared that will double the punishment for crimes committed within criminal gangs. I believe there is no better way to fight organised crime, and this is a measure that has been in place in Denmark for years: i.e., we have copied the Danish law.
Denmark, with a left-wing government, has pioneered many measures against illegal immigration and in the fight against criminal gangs.
Absolutely. Denmark is the great source of inspiration for the Swedish Right on these issues. This is very interesting because, 10-15 years ago, Denmark was described as the worst possible place. Journalists and politicians from the Centre and the Left compared it to Mordor and Nazi Germany, and said that Sweden would never be like that. People talked about Denmark the way they talk about Hungary today. Now everyone thinks that Denmark is fantastic and that we must be tougher because we are ten years behind. It is a radical change in perspective and in the tone of public debate.
It is said that there is a social democrat in every Swede, even on the Right wing. Has this changed?
Yes; but, of course, that doesn’t mean that the welfare state is being dismantled. On the contrary, the Right is a great defender of this model, which was threatened by the immigration policy. There are no new, liberal ideas to cut taxes or privatise the health system; but, in his opening speech to parliament, the prime minister said that the government would focus on the four K’s: Crime, Climate, Competitiveness, and War (in Swedish, these words start with K). These are the big challenges for our government: to reduce crime, to reduce emissions, to increase economic competitiveness, and to help Ukraine win the war against Russia.
His speech also touched on immigration: “Voluntary re-emigration should also be greatly increased and encouraged.” I am convinced that this speech is not just the prime minister’s opinion, but has been agreed by all parties supporting the government, including the Sweden Democrats.
Haven’t green policies, as in other countries, been harmful to the economy?
No, I don’t think so. Green policies have led to the closure of 6 of our 12 nuclear power plants, the oldest and smallest. This led to an increase in electricity prices in 2022, but right now prices are extremely low and electricity is the cheapest in Europe. Regarding fuels, green policies pushed up prices by forcing the blending of biofuels into petrol and diesel, which angered the population, but the current government has relaxed this measure and reduced taxes on fossil fuels, bringing prices down. As a result, Sweden does not have the popular anger over green issues that exists in other countries.
It is also important to note that many in the centre and on the Right are not sceptical about the climate and see it as an important issue. When the government says that the climate is one of its priorities, it knows that it is an issue that concerns Swedish voters.
Regarding the war, will there be more support for Ukraine, and what role does Sweden want to play in NATO?
There will be more support for Ukraine: more weapons and more money, in a decisive and unhesitating way. There has also been talk of an order from the arms manufacturer SAAB, which could be interpreted as a preparation to donate Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine in the future.
Sweden wants to be a frontline NATO country. The military budget will continue to grow, Swedish troops will be sent to Latvia this year, and it is possible that troops will be sent to Finland together with Norway. So this is not a gradual approach to NATO integration, but the start of a race in which Sweden wants to be in the lead.
How do the Swedish people feel about their army?
It has changed a lot. We had military service: it was abolished and then it was reintroduced. There used to be a negative perception of the army because it was seen as weak and incapable of defending the country, but now surveys show that the population has a much more positive view of their armed forces. Similarly, when the war in Ukraine started in 2022, there was a huge increase in the number of volunteers for our Territorial Defence Force. Another example is that, when people are asked whether they would be willing to defend their country with weapons, the three countries in Europe with the highest positive response are Turkey, Finland, and Sweden. When it comes to defence, we have a very strong mentality.
