New analysis from the Conservative Party warns that nearly four in ten newly built homes in the UK by 2030 may be required to accommodate incoming migrants. Drawing on projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the report estimates that net migration between 2026 and 2030 will reach almost 1.2 million people, creating demand for roughly 500,000 additional homes.
The OBR projects that around 1.34 million new homes will be delivered over the same period, meaning that 37.1% of all housing could be allocated to new arrivals, with the proportion rising to nearly 40% by 2030.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp criticized Labour’s approach, stating that high immigration has significant consequences for rents, housing access, and local communities. Shadow Housing Secretary Sir James Cleverly added that the figures show “more than a third of homes will be absorbed by migration before local families even get a look in.”
Their own Conservative Party, however, did not in any significant way halt the flow of migrants into the country during their years in government.
The Labour government plans to house asylum seekers in newly built council homes, replacing the previous use of migrant hotels. Up to 200 local authorities have expressed interest, with five councils confirming participation. A £100 million (€116 million) pilot program will support construction or refurbishment of properties for this purpose.
In January, Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a new border security agreement with China aimed at reducing English Channel crossings. The deal focuses on curbing the supply of small boat engines and equipment often sourced from China. In 2025 alone, 41,474 migrants completed the 21-mile crossing, with an additional 23,242 arrivals during Starmer’s first six months, averaging 117 daily arrivals—double the rate compared to what it was under Boris Johnson’s premiership.
