According to the INSA Institute’s latest projections, the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is leading the polls in 27 federal constituencies in western Germany, based on first-vote preferences if elections were held next Sunday.
The party is especially strong in Ludwigshafen, where its mayoral candidate Joachim Paul was recently barred from the race. AfD is also ahead by over three percentage points in Gelsenkirchen and Duisburg II, where Green Party co-leader Felix Banaszak recently polled below 7%.
In Saarland, the AfD could win three of four constituencies, exceeding the “second vote coverage” cap introduced by the traffic light coalition. Only two direct mandates from the state would likely be seated in the Bundestag.
Other close races include Mannheim, Pforzheim, Heilbronn, and rural areas like Zollernalb / Sigmaringen and Rottweil/Tuttlingen, where the AfD scored 27.5% of first votes in February—its best result in the former West Germany. Northern Hesse is also trending strongly toward the party.
