Kyiv is forced to make an impossible choice between sovereignty and survival. That’s the central claim in an official Chatham House podcast.
Participants Orysia Lutsevych and Matthew Savill suggested that the U.S.-Ukrainian minerals deal, if ratified in an ongoing political process, would be compatible with Ukraine’s permanent exclusion from NATO membership. Savill is more optimistic than most about the prospect of the ‘coalition of the willing’ forcing Europe into the debate, even as the European Union risks fracturing further in its current ineffectual position, under U.S. pressure to take more responsibility.
Outgunned Ukraine seems trapped in attritional warfare, claim the experts, thanks to an expanded role for drones and artillery. This is allowing Russian forces to grind forward, averaging 1,500 casualties a day. For civilians away from the frontline, constant air defence will be necessary to maintain a normal life, including working in national defence industries—which Lutsevych describes as ‘Plan B’ should external military aid cease entirely.
Any post-conflict deal would be complicated by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s constitutional inability to surrender territory. Beneficiaries of Russia’s invasion in pursuit of the “four oblasts” would be excluded from any post-war settlement.
While both experts advise against sovereign Ukraine accepting any deal—and the EU would continue the fight regardless of any peace offer—hopes for a Ukrainian military victory are dwindling fast.
