Europe’s Ammo Crisis: One Factory, One War, and a Race Against Time

As war rages on in Ukraine and ammunition shortages strain Europe’s defenses, the EU’s efforts to boost weapons manufacturing face a critical bottleneck: TNT production.

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projectiles in manufacturing plant

Dori Whipple, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

As war rages on in Ukraine and ammunition shortages strain Europe’s defenses, the EU’s efforts to boost weapons manufacturing face a critical bottleneck: TNT production.

Europe’s plans to ramp up ammunition production largely depend on a single TNT-producing factory in Bydgoszcz, Poland—the last of its kind in the EU. With only one operational factory left in the bloc, Europe scrambles to rebuild its munitions industry and reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers.

Decades of peace led to the decline of European munitions production, with toxic and energy-intensive TNT manufacturing outsourced to countries like China, Turkey, Ukraine, and the Balkans.

The demands of the Russo-Ukraine war exposed this dependence as a strategic weakness. While Russia fires an estimated 10,000 artillery rounds daily, Ukraine struggles with limited supplies, firing only 1,800 to 6,000 rounds per day. In response, the EU aims to produce 2 million shells annually by 2025 under the €500 million ASAP plan—still far below Russia’s output, which is further believed to be supported by allies like North Korea.

To meet demand, Europe is investing in new and reactivated TNT facilities. One example is the reopening of the Lavrio plant in Greece, backed by €23 million in EU funding. However, arms producers warn that despite promises of increased defense spending, too few firm contracts have been signed by European militaries to sustain long-term production.

Eszter Balogi is a third-year student at the Faculty of Law of Eötvös Loránd University in Budapest. In 2025, she served as an intern at the European Parliament with the Foundation for a Civic Hungary. Beside her legal studies, her main interest is national and international history.

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