Half of German Votes Tomorrow Would Be Split Between AfD and CDU/CSU, Poll Finds

The latest research shows both pessimism and a potential swing to the right, but with plenty of undecided votes up for grabs—and many individual political reputations in decline.

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The latest research shows both pessimism and a potential swing to the right, but with plenty of undecided votes up for grabs—and many individual political reputations in decline.

New polling demonstrates how the German public perceives the relative strengths of the various political parties—including bad news for the current government.

The latest survey carried out by pollster Forsa shows that Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is level with the ruling CDU/CSU, with both parties projected to secure 25% of the vote if a snap general election were held. All other parties are significantly behind, but a sizable percentage of declared non- or undecided voters (24%)—up from 17.9% at the last Bundestag election—suggests there could still be all to play for.

Individual politicians are also finding their public reputations ebbing and flowing. Current defence minister Boris Pistorius polls well, unlike economics Minister Katherina Reiche and her colleague, the Christian Democrats’ parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn. The loss of confidence in Spahn puts him in fourth last place, a mere three percentage points ahead of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and AfD chairwoman Alice Weidel (both on 16 points each). 

Chancellor Friedrich Merz leaves voters dissatisfied with the quality of his leadership: a mere 32% of those surveyed rate it as ‘good.’ An unsettling 59% see Germany’s economic future as getting worse in the months ahead. Only a fifth (20%) of the voters polled now trust the CDU/CSU to lead the country effectively in the same period.

The data cited above came from the Forsa opinion research institute, on behalf of RTL Deutschland, compiled over the summer between July 29th and August 4th.

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