The Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) leads the latest poll, with 39% of respondents saying they would vote for Donald Tusk’s party.
Law and Justice (PiS) follows with 28.07%, while right-wing parties such as Konfederacja and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej receive 14.26% and 6.88% support.
All four parties would surpass the electoral threshold and be represented in the Sejm. Other parties, including the New Left (4.48%), Poland 2050 (2.89%), Razem (2.25%), and Polish People’s Party (PSL) (2.17%), would fall short.
Conducted by the National Research Group (Ogólnopolską Grupę Badawczą), the poll translates party support into seats, projecting 218 for the Civic Coalition, 154 for PiS, 70 for Konfederacja, and 18 for Grzegorz Braun’s Konfederacja Korony Polskiej. Despite his party’s lead, Tusk may struggle to retain power.
Recent political developments have intensified scrutiny of the Tusk government. On October 28th, Prosecutor General and Justice Minister Waldemar Żurek requested that parliament lift the legal immunity of his predecessor, Zbigniew Ziobro, a key PiS figure in the conservative former government. This move underscores growing authoritarian tendencies within the left-liberal government, which has used the justice system as a political weapon against its conservative rivals.
Earlier this year, Tusk’s administration faced criticism for attempting to dismiss almost half of Poland’s electoral commissioners, raising concerns about interference with the independence of institutions responsible for organizing elections.
