Support for the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is edging closer than ever to the long-dominant Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria, according to a new opinion poll.
According to the survey, the CSU under Bavarian minister-president Markus Söder is polling at 37%, down 2 points from last month, while the AfD remains steady at 22%—narrowing the gap to just 15 points, the smallest margin on record.
This rise comes after a four-month surge during which the AfD improved its support by eight percentage points.
The Greens trail behind in third place with just 12%, the conservative Free Voters are at 10%, while the Social Democrats lag behind at 7%.
The trend signals a growing discontent among Bavarian voters with Söder’s leadership. The survey also highlights that 45% of respondents are dissatisfied with the performance of the minister-president, compared to 43% who express approval.
The poll underscores a historic shift in Bavaria’s political landscape. Once safely in command with support well above 40%, the CSU now faces its most credible challenge yet from the AfD, whose steady rise could impact both state and federal electoral dynamics.
