Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is on course to secure the largest Commons majority in modern history, with a recent megapoll predicting 445 seats if an election were held tomorrow. Kemi Badenoch’s Tories could fall to just seven MPs and Labour to 73. Smaller parties are projected to fragment the left-of-centre vote. Tactical voting may influence results, but the survey underlines unprecedented support for Reform UK.
The seat-by-seat MRP poll, carried out by communications firm PLMR with Electoral Calculus, also forecasts the Liberal Democrats to win 42 seats, the Scottish National Party (SNP) 41, and Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party 13. The Greens and Plaid Cymru are projected to win six and five seats respectively.
Farage has pledged swift action on illegal migration, promising to introduce new measures within two weeks of taking office to restore border control and illegal arrivals.
Labour faces growing criticism over its border policy. Record numbers of migrants—at least 35,000—have crossed the English Channel illegally under the Starmer government. With thousands still housed in hotels and no clear reduction in arrivals, officials warn that Labour has lost control of Britain’s borders. Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces mounting scrutiny as voters demand stronger action on immigration and public safety.
The poll also indicates that voters consider the economy and cost of living the most important issue (59%), followed by immigration and border control (47%) and the National Health Service (44%).
