Russia is expected to be able to continue its war against Ukraine throughout 2026, despite mounting pressure on its economic and human resources, according to a recent military analysis. Experts say Moscow has shifted to a war economy and is spending vast sums to sustain the conflict.
Analysts at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said there are “few signs” that Russia’s ability to wage war has been significantly weakened. The country spent at least $186 billion (€157 billion) on defence in 2025, representing more than 7% of GDP and marking a sharp increase compared to previous years.
According to the report, Moscow is continuing to develop its weapons systems, including long-range missiles and drones that can reach as far as Europe (in September last year alone, 21 Russian drones flew over Poland). Drone warfare has also provided Russia with an opportunity to test and refine new battlefield tactics and military technologies.
Although recruitment is becoming increasingly difficult and Russian forces continue to suffer heavy losses, the Kremlin remains capable of mobilising new troops and sustaining offensive operations.
The prolonged conflict keeps posing a serious security challenge to Europe and NATO. European allies and Canada pledged last year to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, but meeting this target will be difficult for many countries, and strengthening Europe’s military capabilities could take years.
