China does not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 but is instead seeking to bring the island under its control without force, according to a new U.S. intelligence assessment—prompting a sharp rebuke from Beijing on Thursday.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly threatened to seize it by force, stepping up military pressure and large-scale drills in recent years.
The U.S. intelligence community “assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” its Annual Threat Assessment report said on Wednesday.
Responding on Thursday, China’s foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said “the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair” and urged Washington to “speak and act cautiously” on the matter.
“The U.S. should … correct their understanding of China, and stop hyping up the China threat theory,” Lin told a press conference.
U.S. defense officials had previously flagged 2027 as a possible timeline for a Chinese attack, but the latest report offers a more cautious assessment.
“In 2026, Beijing probably will continue seeking to set the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan short of conflict,” the report said.
It added that Chinese officials recognise an amphibious invasion of Taiwan “would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure”—particularly if the United States intervenes.
The report also noted that Beijing continues to frame unification with Taiwan as essential to achieving its goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049, pointing to a longer-term strategic horizon.
According to the assessment, any decision to use force would depend on a range of factors, including China’s military readiness, Taiwan’s domestic politics, and the likelihood of U.S. intervention.
Washington does not formally recognise Taiwan but remains the island’s main military backer.
