The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to vote on Friday, September 19, on reimposing deep economic sanctions against Iran over its expanding nuclear program.
Britain, France, and Germany—all signatories to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action designed to block Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons—accuse Tehran of violating its commitments under the deal.
Diplomatic sources predict the resolution will fall short of the nine votes required to maintain the current suspension of sanctions, meaning restrictions are likely to be reimposed. French president Emmanuel Macron said he expected international sanctions on Iran to be restored by the end of the month:
The latest news we had from the Iranians are not serious.
Despite a cascade of diplomatic contact between the European powers and Tehran, the Western ‘E3’ trio insisted there was no concrete progress.
To block the move, Russia and China—both against reinstating sanctions—would have to secure nine out of 15 votes in the UN Council, something diplomatic sources view as improbable. According to International Crisis Group analyst Richard Gowan
Algeria and Pakistan may support Russia and China in backing the resolution, but I think other members are likely to oppose it or abstain, so the Europeans and U.S. will not have to use their veto.
Sanctions could be enforced as soon as next week, but the UN’s upcoming high-level gathering—attended by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian—may provide a chance for last-minute talks.
