The Netherlands risks power shortages within a decade as coal plants close, gas stations lose profitability, and demand for electricity surges, a new study warns.
According to consultancy Compass Lexecon, the Netherlands will have sufficient backup power for the next five years, but shortages are likely after that. By 2029, the last coal plants will close. The report claims that gas plants are becoming unprofitable as (subsidized) wind and solar expand. At the same time, electricity demand is rising due to heat pumps and electric vehicles.
Imports cannot be relied upon: German plants face closure and a planned cable to the UK is now delayed. From 2033, shortages of 15–18 hours per year are expected—far above the four-hour limit. Such deficits could trigger blackouts and extreme prices. Today, Dutch supply reliability is 99.99%. Compass Lexecon argues that a national capacity market—paying operators to keep plants or batteries available—could avert risks, as seen in Belgium and the UK. Benefits are estimated at €2.5–3 billion annually.
Energie Nederland chair Cora van Nieuwenhuizen calls the report a wake-up call. Gas plants now run so little that operators delay maintenance, and one in Rotterdam may close without capacity payments. She warns lost capacity cannot easily be restored. Future outages like Spain and Portugal’s recent €400 million blackout cannot be ruled out. She stresses regulation must be technology-neutral, covering batteries or nuclear, but setting it up will take years.
Energy expert Martien Visser agrees the risks are real, citing TenneT forecasts, though he notes electrification may be slower. He calls the debate “a poker game” between government and operators: a capacity market is costly and counts as state aid, requiring European Union approval.
With pressure mounting, Energie Nederland will present the report to Climate Minister Sophie Hermans. “The Netherlands cannot afford to wait any longer,” Van Nieuwenhuizen warns.
