Understanding Russia’s approach to the Black Sea is essential for preparing against its strategy in future, according to a leading foreign affairs think tank.
The report from Chatham House, which is available for download here, emphasises the need for Ukraine to retain control of Odesa and its adjacent coastline. It suggests that this goal should be built into any future settlement to the country’s current conflict with Russia.
Conversely, Moscow continues to use hybrid and full-scale warfare in the Black Sea, as part of its wider strategy going back two decades. The Chatham House writers envisage a major role for Turkey as a counterweight to Russia, due to the NATO member’s control of the Turkish Straits and possession of the longest coastline in the region—as well as its sometimes difficult partnership with fellow NATO members, coinciding with its pursuit of BRICS membership.
The report concludes that
the defence of Odesa should form the basis of any joint counterbalancing strategy aimed at preventing Russian domination of the Black Sea. With a reduced US focus in the region, cooperation among major EU members, the UK and Turkey is essential.
As a point of principle in any future peace negotiations, these same proposals could also risk prolonging the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, meaning that caution is also necessary.
