The right-wing anti-immigration party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won its first-ever regional election in the eastern state of Thuringia and achieved its best-ever election result in Germany since the party was founded eleven years ago.
AfD received 32.8% of the votes at the regional elections on Sunday, September 1st, increasing its vote share by almost ten percentage points compared to 2019.
The party also did remarkably well in the elections in the neighbouring state of Saxony, where it was the runner-up with 30.6%—a three-point growth compared to five years ago.
The elections mark a clear shift to the right as the centre-right CDU came first in Saxony (31.9%) and second in Thuringia (23.6%).
AfD has been able to perform spectacularly well despite efforts by the mainstream media to spread disinformation about the party and the political establishment’s attempts at stigmatising the party and its voters by labelling the AfD an “extremist” organisation.
The results also signal voters’ huge dissatisfaction with the governing parties, and the rise of anti-establishment, populist political forces. Recently-formed left-wing nationalist party Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) finished ahead of the left-liberal establishment parties and came third in both Saxony (11.8%) and Thuringia (15.8%).
The parties of the three-party, ‘traffic light’ coalition in Berlin suffered embarrassing losses.
The Social Democrats (SPD) got 7.3% of the vote in Saxony and 6.1% in Thuringia. The Greens finished just above the 5% threshold required to enter parliament in Saxony but failed to do so in Thuringia, receiving only 3.2%. The liberal FDP fared even worse and failed to gain any seats in either of the two parliaments.
“For the chancellor [Olaf Scholz], it would now be time to ask for a vote of confidence to enable new elections,” conservative publication Junge Freiheit commented on the results.
Populist parties, as well as the CDU, which has been in opposition for the past three years, have benefited from the incompetence of the left-wing government that has failed to deal with migration, the cost of living, and energy crises.
Momentum has shifted towards the anti-immigration parties in recent weeks after a wave of knife attacks committed by migrants and the murder of three people by a Syrian terrorist, which sent shockwaves throughout the country.
Voters in the eastern states are also unsatisfied with the continuous funding of Ukraine: both the AfD and Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht have called for the government to stop sending weapons to Kyiv, and instead focus on peace negotiations to end the war between Ukraine and Russia.
The big question following the regional elections is who will govern Saxony and Thuringia.
Co-chair of the AfD Tino Chrupalla said, following the vote, “One thing is very clear: the will of the voters is that there should be a change in policy. We have a clear mandate to govern in Thuringia.”
Despite garnering a large chunk of the vote in both states, AfD faces a cordon sanitaire imposed by the other parties, meaning nobody wants to collaborate with the party.
“Voters know that we do not form coalitions with the AfD,” CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann said after the elections.
In Thuringia, the CDU would have to ally with three leftist parties to gain a majority: the Social Democrats, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, and Die Linke—a choice it would rather make than have to cooperate with the AfD, which would be its natural ally. While SPD and Die Linke are willing to set up such a coalition, BSW, with its stance on Ukraine, could play hard to get.
Following the announcement of preliminary results, the left-wing party reiterated that it would only enter into a coalition with any of the establishment parties if they are willing to find a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine war and to say no to the stationing of U.S. medium-range missiles in Germany.
To complicate matters further for the establishment parties, AfD has more than a third of the seats in the Thuringia parliament, with which they can block decisions requiring a two-thirds majority, such as appointing constitutional court judges.
As the strongest political force, the AfD would also have the right to select the president of the state parliament, a position that holds far-reaching power, writes Deutsche Welle. The president can appoint and dismiss important civil servants, and can also refuse to sign legislation, effectively blocking it from coming into force.
The situation is not much better for the establishment parties in Saxony, where the CDU has been in a governing alliance with the Social Democrats and the Greens. According to the results, this format is unsustainable, and cooperation with the BSW will have to be considered.
