A new study from Cornell University has sparked debate by questioning the long-held belief that immigration is the sole solution to demographic challenges in Western nations. The research challenges the prevailing narrative among pro-immigration governments, which argue that injecting younger immigrant populations into aging societies is essential to counter shrinking populations and rising average ages in Europe.
The study, led by Professors Corey J. A. Bradshaw and Shana M. McDermott, calls this belief a broad oversimplification “driven more by political agendas rather than evidence.”
After extensive research on large-scale global datasets, the academics determined that an aging or declining population does not necessarily result in an economic downturn. Countries with low or negative population growth actually do better on average across key measures, the study notes. It argues that investing in education, healthcare, and smart social policies matters more than just boosting population numbers. Older, well-educated workers with good benefits often contribute more to the economy than young, unskilled workers.
“We find that countries with low or negative population growth perform better on average for all indicators, and that even within-country time series show that most older and slower-growing populations fare better on average,” states the report
In practice, economic policies and labour-market conditions often have more influence on economic growth in high-income nations than demographic age structures. Yet these nuances are often lost when the ideas are picked up in policy debates or the media, where population growth is framed as an axiomatic engine of prosperity or as a justification for certain political actions or movements.
The researchers don’t dismiss concerns about aging populations entirely. A smaller workforce can mean labor shortages in low-skill jobs and slower consumer spending. But there’s a flip side: lower birth rates can lead to higher per-person income, more investment in education, and less strain on resources and the environment.
The main takeaway may be that it’s time to move past fear-driven ideas about population growth being the key to prosperity. Instead, the focus should be on policies that help people thrive, no matter the size or age of the population.
