With national legislative elections roughly a year away, the latest polling data has revealed that Austria’s two main establishment parties—the center-right People’s Party (ÖVP) and center-left Social Democratic Party (SPÖ)—lack the popular support required to form a so-called ‘grand coalition.’
The opinion poll, carried out by the German market research firm INSA, revealed that, if elections were held today, the ÖVP and SPÖ would collectively garner 46% of the national vote, just short of the majority required to govern, making it so the two parties would need the support of either the left-liberal Greens or the liberal EU federalist NEOS to form a ruling coalition, Exxpress reports.
Furthermore, if the polling figures do not shift substantially from where they are now, the formation of a liberal, left-of-center coalition made up of the SPÖ, the Greens, and NEOS will be unachievable, as the three parties together enjoy the support of 40% of the Austrian population, well short of the majority needed.
Thus, it appears that forming a majority government without the national-conservative Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), which according to this latest poll stands at 30%, may be out of the question unless, of course, the ÖVP is willing to shift left in order to form a coalition with the SPÖ along with either the Greens or NEOS.
Commenting on the situation at hand, Exxpress Editor-in-Chief of Richard Schmitt says that Kickl’s FPÖ is likely to increase its support if Austria’s economic situation continues to deteriorate. In such a scenario, he says: “No 25 songbooks found in some cellar will help [anyone] prevent the Freedom Party’s participation in government.”
Schmitt also says that it will be interesting in the months ahead to see whether Kickl will campaign as the FPÖs leading candidate—with the hope to become Austria’s chancellor—or if he will step aside and leave the crucial task to one of his fellow party members so he can return to his former position as interior minister.
Last month, Chancellor Nehammer (ÖVP), in an interview with the national public broadcaster Österreichischer Rundfunk (ORF), claimed that an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition is off of the table so long as Herbert Kickl leads the party. Nehammer even so far as to label the FPÖ’s federal chief a “security risk,” over his opposition to the Sky Shield Initiative, which he insists is at odds with the country’s historical geopolitical neutrality—enshrined in the country’s constitution.
The latest polling data comes days after the European Values Study, conducted by the University of Vienna, indicated that 38% of Austrians feel satisfied with Austria’s political system in 2022, down from 67% who gave the same answer in 2018.
That particular study came on the heels of another opinion survey, this time done by the U.S.-based Gallup Institute for Österreichischer Rundfunk (ORF), which revealed that 3/4ths of Austrians are dissatisfied with the ÖVP-Green federal coalition.
