Leaks in both Nord Stream pipelines may have been the product of vandalism.
On Monday, September 26th, technicians of Nord Stream 2 detected a rapid loss of pressure in the gas pipeline from 105 bar to 7 bar, which was quickly traced back to a leak in the pipeline southeast of the Danish island Bornholm. What may have been attributed to an accident, became a lot more suspicious when on Tuesday morning technicians discovered two more leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to the northeast of Bornholm. According to the German Tagesspiegel, authorities are saying that “there is no other scenario in our imagination that doesn’t point towards targeted sabotage.”
The German Green politician Jürgen Trittin told TV station NTV that Nord Stream 2 is “relatively new and built from massive and good German steel.” The construction of the pipeline was finished in 2021, but never went online due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Trittin pointed out that such a leak in a pipeline could only be caused by “forcible disruption.”
Although close to the Danish island of Bornholm, all three leaks are located in international waters, sources reported. The gas exiting the damaged pipelines is not hazardous to the environment, but shipping has been rerouted for safety.
The attack on pipelines on the seabed, however, is “not a trivial undertaking,” writes NTV. The Tagesspiegel reported that to sabotage the pipelines, as well as to investigate the damage, marine divers or U-boats would be necessary. Investigators told the newspaper that they are currently speculating that either Ukrainian forces, forces allied with Ukraine, or a Russian false flag operation may be behind the attack.
While Ukraine opposes the shipment of Russian gas to Europe in principle, Russia’s motivation, according to the Tagesspiegel, may be to further increase insecurity and drive gas prices up again. This theory is supported by the Polish Vice-Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz, who is quoted in Focus to have said that “unfortunately our easterly neighbor is always pursuing an aggressive policy. If someone is capable of pursuing aggressive military politics in Ukraine, then obviously no provocations can be excluded, not even in those parts that lie in Western Europe.”
On Tuesday, the Associated Press reported that seismic stations in Sweden, Norway, and Finland registered two explosions on Monday near the leaks.
A Swedish seismologist was quoted as saying, “We know very well what an underwater blast looks like. And so in this case, there’s no doubt this is not an earthquake.”
On Tuesday, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, and Polish President Andrzej Duda symbolically opened a valve of a yellow pipe belonging to the Baltic Pipe, a new system to bring Norwegian gas across Denmark and the Baltic Sea to Poland. The AP reported that Anders Puck Neilsen, a researcher with the Center for Maritime Operations at the Royal Danish Defence College, called the timing of the leaks “conspicuous” given Tuesday’s opening ceremony for the Baltic Pipe. He said perhaps someone sought “to send a signal that something could happen to the Norwegian gas.”
“The arrow points in the direction of Russia,” Puck Nielsen said. “No one in the West is interested in having any kind of instability in the energy market.”
Another option discussed online has developed from the recent presence of a U.S. fleet—in the region for a NATO drill—which included the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge. Theorists speculate whether the United States had a hand in it, recalling the U.S.’ opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In an official reaction, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged an “obvious destruction of the pipeline,” and stressed that “no explanation can be excluded” until investigations yield results.
“The multiple undersea leaks mean neither pipeline will likely deliver any gas to the EU over the coming winter, irrespective of political developments in the Ukraine war,” analysts at the Eurasia Group wrote. “Depending on the scale of the damage, the leaks could even mean a permanent closure of both lines.”
According to the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, it seems unlikely that any of the pipelines in question will be able to deliver gas to Europe this winter, even if Europe wanted them to.
