Bardella’s Bold Bet: No Confidence Vote Today, Election Showdown Tomorrow

The prospect of a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister François Bayrou on September 8th has sent the French political world into turmoil. Such an outcome would make the prime minister’s resignation inevitable and force Emmanuel Macron to consider dissolving parliament and calling new legislative elections. Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement National (RN), was a guest on the national television channel TF1 on the evening of Tuesday, August 26th, to outline the future prospects for his political party.

Bardella was very clear about his party’s intentions for the vote of confidence that François Bayrou will propose: the 120 RN MPs and their allies in the UDR will cast a no-confidence vote

In this respect, the RN and the UDR are taking a different position from the centre-right Les Républicains (LR) party, some of whose members, including interior minister Bruno Retailleau, currently serve in the government. The LR party has announced that it will vote in favour of confidence and has condemned the “irresponsibility” of the “extremists.” In response, Bardella has condemned their cowardice, describing them as “accomplices to decline.” 

The RN has many reasons for refusing to support the government. Marine Le Pen’s party has rejected the budget proposed in July, which is due to be debated in the National Assembly this autumn, accusing it of failing to tackle any structural reforms and carefully avoiding the major items of expenditure responsible for the public deficit: social fraud, the cost of immigration, and France’s contribution to the European Union budget.

This marks a shift for the RN that contrasts with its previously rather statist position—a stance that has drawn criticism from the Right, accusing Le Pen of being too ‘socialist’—in favour of a liberal line (in the French sense of the term): lower taxes, less state intervention, and encouragement for businesses. Bardella used arguments reminiscent of those put forward by the ‘Nicolas’ movement on social media. He explained:

We are the advocates of working France, of all those French people who are fed up with paying for others and being burdened with taxes.

Following the vote of confidence, which he expects Bayrou to lose, Bardella believes there are two possible paths for the executive branch: either Macron dissolves the National Assembly in order to organise new legislative elections—he has had the option to do so since July—or he resigns. In either case, the solution must be found at the ballot box, Bardella insisted.

Despite mounting pressure, Macron still categorically rules out resigning. Echoing Clemenceau’s historic words, he stated that he intends to govern “until the last quarter of an hour,” being driven by no ambition, since he won’t be a candidate in 2027.

The RN president refused to be thrown off balance by questions about the future of the party and its potential presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, whose fate hangs in the balance pending the outcome of her appeal against her conviction in the European parliamentary assistants case heard in the spring.

“I hope that Marine Le Pen will be able to stand as a candidate, because she is a fighter who gives her all to defend the interests of the French people. She has always said that the interests of the French people are at the heart of her political commitment and that they come before everything else,” Bardella said.

Nevertheless, he, too, must prepare to stand as a candidate in the highly likely event that the appeal proceedings do not go Le Pen’s way and the required ineligibility penalty prevents her from standing in the 2027 presidential elections.

For the time being, the RN has not provided any guidance regarding participation in the blockade announced for Wednesday, September 10th. As its vice-president Edwige Diaz reminded AFP, “The party is not in the business of organising demonstrations.” Members and voters are free to choose for themselves.