The defeat of Spain’s governing Socialist Party (PSOE) in last weekend’s regional elections in Extremadura has had consequences far beyond the region itself. The result has been interpreted in Madrid as more than a routine regional loss: for many figures in and around the Socialist Party, including in the media, it has raised questions over whether the government can survive until 2027.
Extremadura has been a socialist stronghold for decades. The fact that it has performed so badly has triggered a political earthquake across the Spanish Left.
In recent weeks, criticism has begun to come from the smaller parties whose support keeps Sánchez’s minority government in power. Parties that backed Pedro Sánchez’s appointment as prime minister now acknowledge, privately and increasingly in public, that the political project shows clear signs of exhaustion and that the strategy of constant political confrontation has ceased to be effective.
For many allies, the message from the ballot box is clear: the accumulation of scandals, legislative paralysis, and constant confrontation has disconnected the Government from a significant segment of left-leaning voters, fuelling abstention and opening space for the growth of the Right.
Within the PSOE, the impact has been even more pronounced. The resignation of the Extremaduran candidate has been seen by many senior figures within the party as an insufficient, largely symbolic move in the face of a much deeper problem. Voices are beginning to emerge that assume the “Sánchez era” could end up leaving the party seriously damaged.
In that context, former leaders and mid-level party figures are already quietly organising alternative leadership groups and internal factions to “save the furniture”—a Spanish expression meaning to limit the damage in an expected defeat. The fear is not only of losing government, but of the PSOE becoming trapped for years in a crisis of identity after an especially polarising political cycle.
In other European countries, such as France or Italy, socialist parties have all but disappeared. Spain still stands as a rare exception, with two historically dominant parties—the Socialists and the centre-right People’s Party (PP)—maintaining solid bases, but few rule out that this could change given the national and international political context emerging in the coming years.
The situation is further complicated by ongoing legal cases affecting the prime minister’s closest circle. Investigations involving his brother and his wife have intensified the perception that Sánchez is under constant political and media attack, further weakening his position. Although the Government insists on separating these matters from political action, their impact on public opinion has proven difficult to neutralise.
This combination of factors shapes a political situation that makes it hard for the government to last until the end of its term.
Meanwhile, expectations that Spain is heading for a change of government are consolidating within the opposition. The People’s Party is emerging as the main alternative for power, with the prospect of forming a government with parliamentary backing from VOX, Spain’s right-wing populist party. This scenario, which seemed distant just a year ago, is now being taken seriously even within sectors of the PSOE itself.
The great unknown is the timing. The Government maintains its commitment to see out the legislature. However, the defeat in Extremadura has accelerated political dynamics. Each upcoming regional election now risks turning into an informal referendum on the government’s survival.
If upcoming results confirm the trend, pressure to bring forward the general election will be difficult to contain. Extremadura has served as a general warning: not so much because of the scale of the defeat, but because of what it symbolises. For many, the countdown to the 2027 election now feels shorter than planned.
