The promise of keeping out migrants by extending border walls is the primary focus of the ruling New Democracy’s election campaign, as the center-right party is on track to win the largest share of votes on Sunday, May 21st. However, the lead may not be enough to prevent the radical left and the socialists from resurging in the parliamentary election or ensure that a stable government would form.
According to the aggregate polls, the conservative New Democracy (ND) is standing at 36%, followed by the Radical Left (Syriza) at 29%, the socialist Movement for Change (Pasok) at 10%, and the Communist Party at 7%.
While this is a comfortable lead, in any case, it might not just be enough to secure sitting Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis a unitary government for the second consecutive term. Whereas New Democracy won nearly 40% of the votes back in 2019, which—coupled with the Greek electoral system automatically awarding an extra 50 seats to the winner, for a total of 158 out of 300—enabled the party to form a government without coalition partners, this time, it appears conservatives will either compromise or put all their bets on a second election.
Now, allying with any of the leftist parties is out of the question for New Democracy, and while two minor right-wing parties also have a chance to get into parliament (the Greek Solution and the National Party, both polling at 4%), Mitsotakis, as Politico noted, would rather want to govern alone, even if that means opening the ballots for a second round of voting after government formation expectedly ends up in a deadlock.
Nonetheless, while the opposition campaigns by pointing at economic shortfalls, a catastrophic train crash, and the Pegasus spying scandal, the ND’s last-minute rallying of the electorate—specifically focusing on extending the protective fence on the Turkish border—might just push the party over the magical threshold. At least that’s what Mitsotakis hopes for, and not without reason, as migration has shaped up to be the single most important issue in this contest among right-wing voters.
As we reported before, the memory of 2020’s border clashes between police and migrants pouring over the border still lives vividly among Greeks, especially those who reside in the northeastern part of the country, many of whom would want—above all else—to prevent the chaos from that time from ever repeating.
But as the fate of the recent Turkish election still hangs in the balance, so does that of the 2016 EU-Turkey Migration Deal, meaning that if the agreement would fall or waver anytime in the next couple of years, border walls would be the only thing to stop the waves of refugees storming the gates of Greece.
Therefore, Mitsotakis pledged to extend the already existing 37-kilometer-long barrier, protecting the Turkish-Greek border’s most vulnerable part. At first, ND only promised another 35 kilometers of barbed wire fences (which in itself would cost up to €100 million), but as the election got closer and the radical left did the same in the polls, Mitsotakis raised the bets, pledging to cover almost the entire length of the 192 kilometers long border by 2026—and even make the EU pay for it.
Promising to build a wall and have someone else pay for it naturally prompted critics and supporters alike to draw comparisons with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who wanted to outsource the cost of his fence to Mexico.
“I don’t have thick blonde hair, so I think the comparison is not particularly relevant,” PM Mitsotakis said when asked about the Trump similarities in a recent interview with the German newspaper Bild, but added that he, too, pursues an “aggressive, but fair” migration policy.
I should remind you that six months after I came into office we were essentially faced with an organized invasion of illegal migrants into Greek, that means European, territory.
[A border fence] is one part, not the only solution to the migration problem, but certainly one component that significantly reduces illegal migration.
According to the PM, it is only fair to expect the EU to take over most of the costs associated with the construction. “We are a frontline state, we are subject to significant migratory pressures, we expect help from the EU,” Mitsotakis argued in the interview, adding that
It’s very unfair on the one hand, to ask Greece to do the difficult job of protecting the external borders and then pointing the finger at Greece because it’s simply doing the job on behalf of others.
While the left calls this wishful thinking, there might be a chance it would actually work out. After all, both the Council and the European Parliament adopted measures to fund certain protective infrastructures along the external borders. And even if they stopped just shy of explicitly covering walls and fences, by giving out funds for equipment and personnel, these measures could technically allow local budgets to be reorganized, paying for the construction.
However, Greece’s land border with Turkey is just one of the choke points for illegal migration, while the sea remains wide open. With walls not being an option there, Mitsotakis’ ND instead increased the number of patrol vessels and imposed stricter entry policies that allow authorities to initiate the return of illegal migrants quicker.
This, in turn, led several NGOs and the European Parliament to raise awareness of what they call “illegal pushback” of migrants by Greek authorities, which the government consistently denied, saying that it follows all necessary rules. As PM Mitsotakis said:
We have followed a strict but fair policy, we have protected our land and sea borders, proving that the sea has borders and we can guard them. We have reduced flows by 90 percent.
On Sunday, however, the focus will shift back to the land border with the promise of a full-length fence, but in general, Greeks are also voting for either continuing the current migration policy or abandoning it. And if New Democracy wins, the wall will be built regardless of getting EU funds or not.
“With or without European money,” Mitsotakis said at a recent campaign rally, “the fence in Evros will be finished.”
