EU Foreign Ministers to Arrive Empty-Handed in Ukraine on Victory Day

Ukraine’s staunchest supporters in Europe like to deflect all the blame for the lack of progress onto the few pro-peace countries, such as Slovakia and Hungary, yet they are still all talk and no action even when given free hand to pursue their agenda without the shackles of unanimity.

After spending two days at an informal gathering in Warsaw, beginining today, EU foreign ministers will travel further east to Lviv, western Ukraine, on May 9th, marking the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War and holding talks with their Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Sybiha.

The visit is largely symbolic, meant to show the EU’s support for Kyiv while President Putin holds his Victory Day parade in Moscow. However, Brussels’ initial plan was to organize an informal EU summit in the Ukrainian capital with as many EU leaders attending as possible. That was quickly revised to just a ministerial meeting, much further from the frontlines, after several leaders, including Germany’s Friedrich Merz and France’s Emmanuel Macron, said they couldn’t fit it into their schedule.

It wouldn’t be too big a problem that much of the symbolic value that Kyiv was hoping for is gone, if the ministers at least brought something tangible with them, besides their support and encouragement. That won’t be happening either, which makes officials in Kyiv question why the foreign ministers are even coming.

As you may remember, the EU Commission began the year by proposing the ambitious “Kallas plan”—named after foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas—which would have put forward a €40 billion military aid package for Ukraine to be delivered this year, in addition to previous, long-term commitments.

Everyone seemed to be on board until it turned out that Hungary and Slovakia won’t veto the plan as long as they are allowed not to participate, which led to France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal pulling out their own vetoes at the last minute, citing “financial reasons.”

Kallas then shifted goal posts and promised two million large-caliber ammunition rounds instead, worth €5 billion. The foreign affairs chief recently announced that EU countries (and Norway) have already reached two-thirds of that goal—meaning not even the most feasible element of the Kallas plan is ready in time to deliver a clear message to Putin on Victory Day.

Instead of military support, the EU ministers will mainly discuss the upcoming 17th sanctions package against Russia—which also turned out to be much less ambitious than Kyiv was hoping for, with countries such as Belgium, France, and Spain blocking the inclusion of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG)—as well as the proposed establishment of a special war crime tribunal to prosecute Putin and his top officials after the war, similarly to the Nuremberg trials in 1945.

Details of the special tribunal are expected to be revealed later this week, and it could be officially created via a Council of Europe vote as soon as May 14th. It’s meant to complement the work of the International Criminal Court (ICC) at least in three categories—war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide—with the possible addition of “crimes of aggression,” such as the invasion itself and the occupation and annexation of Ukrainian territories.

Of course, establishing this court means nothing unless Ukraine decisively wins the war, which doesn’t seem likely anytime soon, with or without the EU’s half-hearted support. That’s why national conservatives in Brussels have been calling for a complete reversal of strategy to work toward peace instead, together with the U.S.

“The EU’s strategy in Ukraine has been a complete failure,” Flemish MEP Tom Vandendriessche said in Strasbourg on Wednesday. “Von der Leyen talks about diplomatic isolation and sanctions imposed on Russia to bring it to its knees, supplying weapons to Ukraine, which would enable them to defeat Russia, and so on. But none of these things have happened.”

We need to look at the U.S. instead and what initiatives they are taking [to end the war], and we need to realize that the bills for this hideous war are being sent to Europe in an ever-greater proportion. It’s so easy to say ‘whatever it takes,’ but what will the next €350 billion achieve what hasn’t been achieved by the previous consignments of funding?

The EU has really become the prisoner of its own strategy. It promises peace and security, but it’s not delivering that at all … t’s absolutely imperative that we have a change of strategy. We need to invest in every possible diplomatic initiative that brings this war to an end.