European Council President Charles Michel heads to Budapest on Monday, November 27th for talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The visit was announced only days after Orbán sent a letter to Michel calling for an “urgent discussion” on the European Union’s overall strategy on Ukraine.
In his letter of November 16th, obtained by AFP, Orbán wrote that “the European Council is not in a position to make key decisions” on security guarantees or additional financial support for Ukraine, further sanctions against Russia, and the future of the enlargement process unless a “consensus on our future strategy towards Ukraine is found.”
Orbán also queries whether further support is warranted if Washington steps back its aid for Kyiv. “Can we take continuing support from the United States for granted? How do we conceive the security architecture of Europe after the war?” Orbán asks in the letter.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia has reached a stalemate, and Kyiv is awaiting further military support from the EU while hoping to open membership talks at the upcoming summit. There is decreasing enthusiasm for funding Ukraine in the United States, and a Donald Trump-led White House after next year’s U.S. presidential elections could stop funding altogether.
Hungary has been the only EU member state to reject sending weapons to Ukraine and has made it clear it will block the start of accession negotiations with Ukraine, because of the treatment of Hungarian ethnic minorities. Viktor Orbán has been accused of preparing to use his veto power at the December EU summit to block fresh European aid to neighbouring Ukraine, in part to unlock funds for his own country.
The European Commission decided last December to withhold €22 billion of EU cohesion funds for Hungary until its government meets conditions related to judiciary independence, academic freedoms, LGBT rights, and the asylum system. The EU is also holding back Hungary’s €5.8 billion in grants from the EU’s post-COVID stimulus programme until the government addresses concerns over the independence of courts.
However, Hungary was authorised Thursday to receive a €900 million advance from the EU as part of the post-COVID recovery fund. According to Politico, this could be “a sign of goodwill to Budapest”, but a European Commission spokesman said this money is not dependent on rule of law requirements, but is meant to provide immediate energy support.
According to two EU officials who spoke to Politico, Charles Michel aims to strike a deal with Orbán that would avoid the upcoming EU leaders’ summit on December 14th and 15th turning into a fiasco.
However, Hungarian conservative publication Mandiner stresses that Orbán only ever threatens to wield his veto rights when EU plans directly threaten Hungary’s interest. The prime minister wrote a letter to Michel on the eve of the sixth anti-Russian sanction package last year, warning the council president that putting a stop to Russian oil imports would seriously affect Hungary’s energy security. Hungary did indeed get an exemption from the oil embargo. As the commentary puts it, despite all the media fanfare, Charles Michel knows exactly what is at stake; that is why he is visiting Budapest.
