The EU’s top general warned in an interview with the German Die Welt this week that the Russian war machine has much more longevity than most observers believe and that the current Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing to produce the results needed to restore the nation’s full territorial integrity.
Four-star Austrian general and chair of the European Union’s Military Committee (EUMC) General Robert Brieger said he was “cautious to expect a breakthrough” by Ukrainian ground forces as President Zelensky again reiterated his country’s commitment to retaking Crimea, which has been under Russian occupation since 2014.
Regarded as ideologically conservative and politically close to the right-wing FPÖ Austrian party, General Brieger has served as chair of the EUMC since 2022, with the committee functioning as a military advisory board to the EU’s foreign policy wing, the EEAS.
Despite some small territorial gains, the much-hyped Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in early June with freshly delivered armour from the West has been acknowledged by many pundits to be failing to achieve its initial strategic objectives in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts as part of a plan to cut the Russian lines off at the Azov Sea.
Ukrainian forces have faced much stronger Russian defences than expected, raising fears that Kyiv is exhausting its dwindling manpower for limited Pyrrhic victories on the southern front.
In the interview, General Brieger also defended the military role of the EU, with many experts believing Brussels is increasingly playing second fiddle to NATO due to a lack of a coherent response to the Ukraine crisis and military capabilities.
He added that Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU would change the game when it came to the need for EU military preparedness and that Western sanctions against Moscow had so far not dented Russia’s military capabilities due to large arms stocks.
The general also said that it was impossible to make firm predictions on the Ukrainian war, and even figures on casualty rates differed by 300% at times as he called on more EU member states to embrace a common defence policy.
Despite increasing acceptance in Western military circles that Ukraine is militarily incapable of capturing lost territory, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock reiterated her government’s intent to return Crimea to Ukraine as Ukrainian special forces mounted raiding operations on the west coast of the Crimean peninsula this week.
