Transgender and queer identification among young Americans has dropped sharply in just two years, according to new research.
Drawing on large-scale survey data, Professor Eric Kaufmann of the University of Buckingham found that the share of students identifying as a gender other than male or female has fallen from nearly 7% in 2023 to just 3.6% this year. In his report, he described this as a “startling and unanticipated post-progressive development.”
“In other words, the share of trans-identified students has effectively halved in just two years,” he wrote.
The findings, published by the Centre for Heterodox Social Science, are based on surveys of tens of thousands of university and high-school students, including more than 60,000 students in 2025 in the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) 2025 campus survey.
Surveys from Andover Phillips Academy and Brown University reflected an even steeper decline. At Andover, 9.2% of students identified as neither male nor female in 2023, but the number fell to just 3% in 2025. At Brown University, the figure fell from 5% in 2022–2023 to 2.6% in 2025.
The report also noted a ten-point drop in the percentage of students identifying as non-heterosexual since 2023, driven by a fall in those describing themselves as queer, pansexual, asexual, or other variations. Meanwhile, heterosexual identification rose from 68% in 2023 to 77% in 2025. “This is a sign that fashions are changing,” Kaufmann observed.
Kaufmann explained:
Whether trans and queer identities will drop to 2010 levels is an open question. But the fact both have declined sharply in just two years is a startling and unanticipated post-progressive development that the education and media establishments will be reluctant to acknowledge.
Kaufmann wrote that the decline cannot be explained by shifts in political or religious attitudes, which have remained stable through the 2020s. Instead, he pointed to improved mental health in the same period. “Less anxious and, especially, depressed students is linked with a smaller share identifying as trans, queer or bisexual,” he wrote.
Kaufmann described the phenomenon as resembling the “fading of a fashion or trend.”
He concluded that the recent changes mark a significant cultural inflection point. “Only time will tell if the substantial decline of LBTQ+ identification will continue among young Americans,” he said.
