Finland’s bid for NATO is now stalled alongside Sweden’s. While both bids were previously bound at the hip, contradictory opinions are now being issued on whether Finland should join NATO alone.
Foreign and Security Policy sources, speaking to Finnish paper Iltalehti, stated on Monday, February 6th, that the country is ready to join NATO without their Nordic neighbour: the official government line Today, however, Paavo Lipponen—former prime minister of Finland—in a submission to Hufvudstadsbladet wrote that it is “pointless for Sweden and Finland to continue the ratification dance with Turkey.”
Those in favour of joining NATO separate from Sweden highlighted that Finland borders Russia directly, with Iltalehti’s sources stating “Sweden’s geopolitical position is quite different from our own.” They also highlight that Finland has very little in the way of differences with Turkey. They cooperate fully on security and anti-terrorism measures; Finland does not block any weapons or defence exports to Turkey. Sources speaking to Iltahlehti said that Turkey had already reached an agreement with Finland before Christmas, confirming that they would not block Finnish membership in NATO.
In contrast, Lipponen maintained that Finland would be in an untenable position without Sweden, stating that the membership of both countries is essential to a NATO defence of its Baltic members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. “How does NATO intend to be able to defend the Baltic countries in a war without Finland and Sweden?” Lipponen asks, answering himself that a lone NATO entry would be a mistake, as “without Sweden, Finland would end up in a vulnerable situation as an outpost responsible for defending the Baltic countries.”
Instead, the former prime minister advocates that the Nordic countries should begin pressuring the U.S. to resolve the issue, as “the responsibility for a positive result lies with NATO’s largest member.” The current deadlock represents a weakness within the NATO block, and if Sweden fails to join, “Russia would get a regional victory for free” as a result. Lipponen says both countries should call on the U.S. to “cut the comedy.”
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said last week at a meeting with Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin that he “understands the frustration of Finns” and appreciates “Finland’s desire to join NATO on the same path as Sweden.” Some speculate that Sweden’s tightening of anti-terror laws will now win Turkish support. However, granted that Erdoğan faces a tight election this spring, it is more likely that he will play public outrage in Turkey over the Quran burnings to his own advantage and continue to make a show of resistance to Swedish NATO membership.
Finland, too, is heading for elections this Spring. It is reported that the main party leaders met with the Finnish president in Mäntyniemi, the presidential residence, in order to discuss adhering to a unified front on the NATO issue, as politicians begin to hit their respective campaign trails.
Finland’s foreign minister has maintained the previous line, saying that it is important that both countries join NATO together, and that he is working to convince Turkey to resume its talks with Sweden.
